***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 3.1 10.4 88.9 58.5 41.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.8 8.5 10.1 81.6 55.7 43.5 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.8 10.3 10.3 83.9 56.7 42.8 3.6 7.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 5.1 11.5 9.7 73.0 52.8 40.2 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.8 9.3 10.4 81.8 55.6 41.3 3.8 7.6 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 5.0 11.6 12.1 74.5 55.1 41.1 5.0 9.7 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.5 10.1 83.6 56.7 44.4 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.0 16.2 11.6 80.2 55.6 43.9 7.7 13.6 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.8 11.1 11.0 89.3 58.7 42.3 3.6 8.0 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.3 10.7 11.7 83.2 56.0 42.9 3.9 8.4 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.4 8.0 9.5 77.2 54.6 40.4 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.6 8.2 9.4 73.8 54.2 41.6 3.0 6.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.8 10.8 11.0 74.9 55.1 42.5 4.4 8.9 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.8 12.4 13.1 84.8 55.7 43.6 4.1 9.7 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.4 9.7 72.1 54.5 42.0 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.1 8.1 10.1 76.4 55.7 42.2 2.8 6.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.3 5.4 9.7 76.3 54.8 42.4 2.1 4.4 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.3 12.6 14.0 85.6 56.4 44.8 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.7 8.9 10.4 82.2 56.1 43.7 3.0 7.0 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.1 14.7 19.4 97.3 62.1 50.4 5.1 9.8 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 4.0 12.2 10.5 90.3 59.5 42.9 4.1 8.7 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.0 7.6 10.5 79.9 56.3 43.7 2.8 6.1 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.0 8.5 10.8 82.9 56.2 43.6 2.7 6.4 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.2 10.6 11.9 80.0 53.8 41.6 3.8 9.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.1 11.5 11.4 89.5 58.6 44.0 4.0 8.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.0 11.8 10.6 72.6 55.8 44.1 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.6 10.2 11.3 91.6 59.3 43.8 3.4 7.3 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.7 6.3 9.4 71.0 53.6 41.0 2.5 5.4 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.6 17.9 16.2 89.6 58.3 46.9 6.8 13.4 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.2 10.4 85.0 57.0 43.8 2.9 6.3 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------