***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 11.0 10.8 117.4 70.2 50.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.6 11.4 12.2 119.3 70.5 53.4 2.5 5.3 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.6 12.6 10.5 113.2 68.7 51.2 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.5 16.5 14.2 131.0 73.5 54.3 3.1 6.7 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.9 13.3 12.9 123.7 71.8 53.7 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.0 10.2 14.9 104.4 66.9 51.3 2.6 5.4 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 11.3 11.5 12.7 126.2 72.3 55.0 2.4 5.0 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.9 15.3 13.2 107.3 67.6 52.0 5.3 9.3 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.5 13.2 11.9 118.2 70.2 52.5 4.2 7.4 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.5 15.5 12.7 111.3 68.6 53.0 4.8 8.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.9 13.3 11.8 112.2 69.0 51.5 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.6 10.5 11.3 103.1 66.4 49.2 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.3 10.7 13.0 101.7 66.1 49.6 2.9 6.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.8 19.0 12.4 103.3 65.0 51.9 6.5 12.0 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.6 14.3 14.6 131.1 73.5 52.9 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.6 10.5 12.2 105.6 67.1 50.0 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.3 11.3 13.5 129.3 73.0 54.9 2.1 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 11.0 13.9 13.9 107.1 67.3 53.4 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.9 15.5 11.4 112.6 68.3 51.7 3.8 7.9 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.6 15.3 19.1 108.9 67.8 53.5 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.6 12.3 11.0 119.3 70.4 50.8 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.8 11.5 13.0 119.3 70.1 53.1 2.5 5.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.3 13.1 10.7 105.7 65.8 50.5 4.0 7.8 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.1 15.6 11.9 107.3 67.0 52.8 4.1 8.5 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.7 14.2 13.3 126.3 72.4 54.1 3.3 6.7 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.1 11.7 13.9 112.3 69.1 49.9 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.6 12.8 12.3 120.4 71.0 52.9 3.2 6.3 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.3 13.2 13.9 124.8 72.0 52.3 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.7 19.5 15.4 104.3 66.4 52.9 6.4 11.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.3 13.2 11.4 115.4 69.4 52.4 3.2 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------