***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 7.7 8.2 10.3 -1.1 33.5 36.3 8.1 9.3 10.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 7.5 7.8 9.6 -1.3 28.3 31.9 8.2 9.5 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 10.1 10.4 10.3 -1.1 30.9 34.2 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.3 5.9 8.0 -0.8 36.5 38.7 5.7 6.9 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 6.6 7.1 8.7 -1.1 30.5 34.4 7.3 8.6 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 5.9 6.4 6.3 -0.9 33.3 36.6 6.3 7.7 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 7.9 8.2 9.7 -1.3 29.3 32.4 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 2.3 2.4 6.2 -1.1 27.8 33.2 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 8.2 8.3 8.5 -1.2 27.2 32.2 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 7.6 7.5 6.9 -1.3 25.5 31.4 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 6.9 7.0 8.0 -1.2 27.0 32.1 7.4 8.7 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 5.9 6.1 7.1 -1.2 28.3 33.1 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 6.2 5.9 6.8 -1.5 22.3 28.5 6.9 8.2 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 8.2 7.7 7.7 -1.7 18.0 24.0 8.7 9.7 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 8.2 8.9 9.8 -0.6 39.7 41.5 8.5 9.6 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 8.0 8.0 7.4 -1.3 26.8 31.4 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 8.1 8.2 9.2 -1.4 26.8 30.1 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 6.2 5.9 6.2 -1.5 21.8 27.5 6.8 8.0 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 8.0 8.1 9.7 -1.3 28.9 32.5 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 2.7 2.6 4.9 -1.3 25.4 31.0 3.2 4.5 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 7.4 7.7 9.5 -1.2 28.0 32.2 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 7.1 7.0 9.3 -1.6 24.1 27.8 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 7.6 7.7 9.7 -1.2 28.3 32.3 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 7.5 7.2 7.9 -1.5 21.4 27.0 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 8.0 8.6 9.8 -1.0 34.4 37.3 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 6.8 6.9 6.6 -1.2 28.4 32.9 7.2 8.4 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 8.0 8.5 9.9 -1.2 32.0 35.1 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 6.3 6.8 8.3 -0.9 35.2 37.6 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 6.0 5.7 5.5 -1.5 21.3 27.8 6.5 7.5 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 8.2 8.6 10.1 -1.1 31.5 34.5 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------