***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9.7 9.5 10.9 1.1 66.8 61.7 6.8 8.2 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 6.6 9.0 10.3 0.8 63.4 59.8 6.8 8.0 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 11.2 11.0 10.8 1.0 65.6 61.5 9.0 10.1 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.5 8.0 1.0 65.3 62.0 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.7 8.1 8.6 0.8 62.4 59.3 6.1 7.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.1 6.2 0.5 58.5 57.1 5.7 6.6 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 9.4 9.1 10.5 0.9 64.8 60.6 7.0 8.1 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 3.1 3.0 6.1 0.4 56.1 55.2 1.7 2.7 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.7 8.4 0.5 58.1 56.1 7.2 8.2 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.3 6.9 0.3 55.4 54.6 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.0 7.7 0.5 58.2 56.4 6.6 7.5 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.0 6.9 0.5 58.2 56.6 5.7 6.6 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.3 6.6 0.3 54.1 53.2 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.8 8.2 0.3 55.7 55.2 7.5 8.5 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 9.2 9.1 9.4 0.9 66.2 62.7 7.7 8.4 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.9 7.2 0.5 57.9 56.2 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.9 9.9 0.7 61.1 58.4 7.3 8.3 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.2 6.2 0.2 53.5 53.6 6.1 7.0 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 9.3 8.9 10.3 0.8 63.1 59.7 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.2 3.6 4.8 0.3 54.0 53.9 2.4 3.4 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.3 9.8 0.7 61.2 58.1 6.3 7.5 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.8 9.9 0.5 58.8 57.1 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 8.8 8.4 10.2 0.7 62.3 59.5 6.7 7.7 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.9 8.2 0.4 56.9 55.9 6.6 7.6 8.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 9.7 9.4 10.0 1.1 66.6 61.9 7.0 8.2 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.5 7.9 6.5 0.5 58.1 56.2 6.6 7.5 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 9.9 9.6 10.5 1.1 66.4 61.2 6.5 8.1 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.1 7.5 8.2 0.8 63.5 60.9 5.9 6.8 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.3 5.5 0.1 51.9 52.5 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 9.6 9.4 10.7 1.0 65.7 61.2 7.1 8.3 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------