***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.6 6.7 9.6 0.7 59.9 57.0 4.8 6.0 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.8 9.1 0.7 60.4 57.7 4.8 6.1 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.1 9.6 0.8 62.2 58.7 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 3.9 4.1 6.8 0.6 60.9 57.8 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 5.9 6.0 7.0 0.5 58.6 56.5 4.0 5.3 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.2 5.2 0.4 57.3 55.7 3.3 4.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.6 9.2 0.7 59.7 57.5 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 1.7 1.6 5.2 0.4 57.1 56.1 -0.4 1.1 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.9 7.0 7.4 0.5 58.9 56.8 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.6 6.5 6.0 0.5 57.6 56.2 4.7 6.0 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.1 6.3 0.4 57.4 55.8 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.1 5.1 5.6 0.4 56.5 55.4 3.3 4.6 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.3 5.3 0.3 54.1 53.4 3.7 5.0 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 7.0 7.1 7.4 0.6 59.4 57.7 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.5 7.0 7.8 0.8 64.1 60.0 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.9 5.8 0.4 56.6 55.0 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.6 8.9 0.7 59.7 57.8 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.5 5.3 0.5 58.1 56.8 3.7 4.9 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.9 9.2 0.7 60.9 58.0 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.2 2.1 3.8 0.4 56.1 55.5 0.2 1.6 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.5 6.7 8.7 0.6 59.9 57.3 4.7 6.0 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.9 8.7 0.6 58.9 57.1 4.2 5.4 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.8 9.1 0.7 61.4 58.4 4.8 6.0 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.2 7.1 0.6 60.2 58.1 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.9 7.0 8.2 0.6 58.6 56.2 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.6 5.1 0.3 55.3 54.1 4.1 5.3 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.7 7.2 9.0 0.6 58.2 55.9 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.3 6.9 0.6 61.1 58.0 3.3 4.5 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.8 4.8 0.5 57.3 56.4 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.2 9.4 0.7 61.0 57.9 5.1 6.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------