***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.4 9.7 0.2 55.4 54.4 6.5 7.2 7.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.4 7.3 9.1 0.1 53.3 53.0 6.4 7.1 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.5 9.6 0.2 55.5 54.5 8.6 9.3 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.8 6.9 0.2 55.2 54.6 3.9 4.6 5.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.5 7.4 0.1 51.7 51.7 5.6 6.4 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.8 5.3 0.0 51.2 51.6 5.0 5.7 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.3 9.2 0.1 53.4 53.0 6.5 7.2 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 1.1 1.8 5.2 -0.1 47.5 48.5 1.2 1.9 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.4 7.5 0.0 49.7 49.9 6.7 7.4 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 7.3 6.9 6.0 -0.1 47.1 48.1 6.4 7.0 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.5 6.6 -0.1 48.3 48.9 5.9 6.6 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.6 5.9 -0.1 47.9 48.6 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.9 5.6 -0.3 43.2 45.4 5.4 6.2 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 7.8 7.4 7.2 -0.2 45.6 47.3 6.9 7.5 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.5 8.2 0.3 59.0 57.5 6.6 7.2 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.4 6.1 -0.1 47.2 48.3 6.8 7.5 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 7.4 7.3 8.8 0.1 51.6 51.8 6.6 7.2 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.1 5.7 5.3 -0.2 44.9 46.6 5.2 6.0 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.3 9.2 0.2 53.7 53.3 6.6 7.2 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.4 3.8 -0.2 45.1 46.9 1.8 2.6 3.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.0 8.7 0.1 51.6 51.5 6.2 6.9 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 6.7 6.4 8.8 0.0 49.2 49.8 5.8 6.5 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.1 9.1 0.1 53.5 53.2 6.3 6.9 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.9 6.6 7.1 -0.1 47.5 48.6 6.1 6.7 7.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.7 8.6 0.2 54.9 54.2 6.7 7.5 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.4 5.4 -0.1 47.5 48.5 5.8 6.5 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.7 9.1 0.2 53.8 53.2 6.6 7.5 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.9 7.0 0.2 54.2 53.8 5.0 5.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.0 4.7 -0.2 43.9 46.0 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 7.7 7.7 9.5 0.2 55.3 54.4 6.7 7.5 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------