***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 21.5 21.0 20.3 -0.2 47.5 47.8 20.0 21.2 22.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 21.8 21.4 20.3 -0.2 47.6 48.0 20.5 21.5 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 21.9 21.4 20.4 -0.2 47.5 47.9 20.4 21.5 22.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.8 13.8 17.0 -0.4 45.2 46.0 12.7 14.3 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 21.9 20.9 18.3 -0.7 41.8 43.1 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 21.2 20.4 17.0 -0.3 46.7 47.8 19.3 20.7 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 21.4 20.9 20.1 -0.4 45.7 46.3 20.1 21.1 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 11.8 10.9 16.8 -0.5 44.1 45.3 10.1 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 22.0 21.0 19.1 -0.7 42.0 43.4 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 21.6 20.6 17.6 -0.7 42.6 43.9 19.9 21.2 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 22.0 21.0 18.7 -0.7 41.9 43.3 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 21.5 20.6 17.7 -0.5 44.8 45.9 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 22.5 21.3 18.4 -0.9 39.8 41.9 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 22.5 21.6 19.0 -0.7 41.9 42.9 20.9 22.1 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 21.4 20.9 19.5 -0.1 48.9 49.3 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 22.8 21.9 18.3 -0.6 42.8 44.3 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 21.1 20.5 19.6 -0.5 44.5 45.2 19.8 20.8 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 21.2 20.3 16.9 -0.6 42.8 44.1 19.6 20.8 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 21.6 21.2 20.4 -0.2 48.0 48.3 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 17.8 17.0 15.3 -0.5 43.9 45.2 16.3 17.5 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 21.8 20.9 19.8 -0.7 42.2 43.4 20.3 21.4 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 21.9 21.1 19.6 -0.6 42.5 43.3 20.5 21.6 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 21.9 21.5 20.4 -0.1 48.4 48.8 20.6 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 22.1 21.3 19.0 -0.6 43.2 44.3 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 21.3 20.4 18.8 -0.7 42.5 43.6 19.7 20.9 22.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 22.0 21.4 17.3 -0.3 46.2 47.6 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 21.7 20.9 19.5 -0.4 45.2 45.9 20.1 21.3 22.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 21.7 20.8 18.1 -0.4 45.9 46.7 19.6 21.1 22.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 17.1 16.2 16.4 -0.7 42.2 43.6 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 21.6 21.1 20.4 -0.2 48.0 48.3 20.2 21.2 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------