***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 17.5 18.1 18.3 1.2 63.3 60.5 15.4 16.9 18.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 17.4 18.1 18.4 1.4 64.8 61.4 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.9 18.6 18.7 1.4 64.6 61.6 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.6 15.9 1.1 62.1 59.9 8.8 10.4 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 18.1 18.4 16.6 0.9 59.9 58.0 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 17.6 17.7 15.1 0.7 57.7 56.3 15.3 17.0 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 17.2 17.8 18.3 1.3 64.0 60.7 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.8 15.7 1.1 61.5 59.3 7.0 8.6 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 18.3 18.6 17.2 1.0 60.4 58.4 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 17.7 18.1 16.4 1.1 61.2 59.1 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 18.1 18.5 16.6 1.0 60.3 58.3 15.8 17.5 19.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 17.9 18.3 16.4 1.0 60.9 58.7 15.5 17.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 18.5 18.6 15.8 0.7 57.6 56.1 16.2 17.9 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.8 17.5 1.3 62.5 59.9 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.8 17.4 16.4 1.2 63.9 61.6 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 18.9 19.2 16.3 0.9 59.4 57.5 16.7 18.3 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.9 17.4 17.9 1.1 62.2 59.2 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.6 16.3 1.2 61.9 59.6 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 18.3 18.1 18.6 1.5 65.4 62.0 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.8 15.2 14.0 1.1 60.8 58.8 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 18.0 18.3 17.7 1.0 60.2 58.4 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 17.6 18.0 17.9 1.1 62.1 59.2 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 17.7 18.4 18.8 1.5 65.7 62.2 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 18.2 18.8 17.5 1.3 63.0 60.4 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 17.2 17.5 16.4 0.9 59.7 57.8 15.4 16.7 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 18.0 18.6 16.0 1.1 62.7 59.8 15.8 17.4 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 17.8 18.3 17.5 1.1 61.8 59.3 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 17.4 18.0 16.2 1.1 62.3 60.2 15.3 16.9 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.2 15.5 1.1 60.8 58.8 11.5 13.1 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 17.4 18.1 18.5 1.4 65.4 62.0 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------