***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 18.5 18.9 18.7 0.9 64.9 61.5 17.4 18.2 19.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 18.6 19.1 18.8 0.9 65.3 61.7 17.6 18.4 19.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 18.9 19.4 19.1 0.9 65.3 61.8 17.8 18.6 19.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.3 16.0 0.7 62.4 59.3 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 19.0 19.1 16.9 0.5 58.1 56.0 17.9 18.7 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 18.4 18.6 15.6 0.6 59.4 56.6 17.3 18.1 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 18.3 18.7 18.7 0.8 64.2 60.8 17.3 18.1 18.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 9.7 9.9 15.8 0.6 59.7 57.4 8.7 9.4 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 19.1 19.2 17.6 0.5 58.5 56.5 18.0 18.8 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 18.6 18.8 16.6 0.6 59.2 57.1 17.6 18.4 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 19.1 19.2 17.1 0.5 58.3 56.2 17.9 18.8 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 18.6 18.8 16.5 0.6 59.9 57.3 17.5 18.4 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 19.4 19.4 16.5 0.3 55.7 54.0 18.3 19.1 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 19.3 19.5 17.8 0.6 60.4 58.0 18.3 19.1 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 18.6 18.5 17.3 0.9 65.2 61.7 17.1 17.8 18.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 19.9 20.0 16.8 0.5 58.4 56.0 18.7 19.6 20.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 18.0 18.3 18.3 0.7 61.6 58.6 17.1 17.8 18.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 18.0 18.2 16.3 0.6 60.2 57.9 17.0 17.8 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 18.5 19.0 19.0 1.0 65.9 62.1 17.5 18.3 19.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.4 14.2 0.5 58.9 56.9 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 18.9 19.0 18.2 0.5 59.0 56.7 17.8 18.6 19.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 18.8 19.0 18.2 0.6 60.1 57.2 17.7 18.5 19.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 18.8 19.3 19.1 1.0 66.6 62.7 17.9 18.6 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 19.1 19.5 17.8 0.7 61.6 59.0 18.1 18.9 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 18.2 18.4 17.1 0.6 59.7 57.3 17.3 18.0 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 19.0 19.4 16.2 0.8 63.2 59.4 18.0 18.8 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 18.7 19.0 18.0 0.8 62.9 59.8 17.6 18.4 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 18.4 18.7 16.6 0.7 62.5 59.3 17.3 18.1 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.5 15.5 0.5 58.5 56.6 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 18.4 18.9 18.9 1.0 66.2 62.4 17.4 18.2 18.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------