***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.4 4.1 8.5 60.5 49.8 40.2 2.1 4.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.4 4.1 7.0 53.7 45.8 35.4 2.1 4.8 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.4 6.1 8.3 61.4 49.6 38.3 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.6 11.4 10.1 60.5 50.5 40.7 6.0 11.3 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.0 8.0 9.4 67.3 52.5 41.3 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.8 7.8 10.9 78.4 56.3 43.3 2.7 6.0 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.4 4.4 7.1 53.5 46.5 36.0 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.4 9.1 9.7 63.6 48.3 38.2 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.3 6.0 8.7 61.8 48.5 38.5 3.3 6.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.1 6.7 9.5 61.4 46.9 37.6 4.1 7.4 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.0 7.7 9.0 64.8 51.3 39.9 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.2 7.0 8.8 68.4 52.0 39.3 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.7 11.1 81.9 58.7 44.0 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.0 7.8 9.2 56.7 44.8 35.8 4.9 9.4 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.5 9.7 11.2 71.7 57.1 44.3 4.0 7.7 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.7 6.4 9.8 71.1 54.4 41.5 2.5 5.4 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.5 3.6 6.3 47.9 43.0 32.9 2.3 4.9 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.9 7.5 10.9 65.7 47.6 38.5 4.7 8.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.0 4.9 7.3 54.9 46.0 35.5 2.7 5.8 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.2 9.8 12.3 74.1 52.2 43.6 4.7 9.1 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.3 6.0 8.5 61.1 49.2 39.2 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.1 6.8 47.6 42.7 32.3 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.2 5.6 7.7 56.4 46.4 36.3 3.1 6.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.0 6.4 8.9 60.1 46.3 37.1 4.1 7.2 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.6 10.9 72.5 55.6 44.5 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.3 8.7 10.1 81.6 58.0 44.0 2.9 6.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 5.9 4.5 9.2 64.1 51.5 41.7 2.1 4.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.7 9.1 10.1 65.9 53.4 41.8 4.3 8.2 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.5 10.6 11.4 68.6 49.2 40.1 6.1 10.9 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.4 4.5 7.6 57.1 47.6 36.8 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------