***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.9 8.9 10.6 88.7 59.7 46.2 2.4 5.8 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.8 10.9 10.3 94.0 62.9 50.4 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.0 11.4 10.4 87.2 59.2 46.8 3.6 7.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.6 14.9 11.6 88.6 60.5 45.7 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.7 10.6 10.8 87.5 59.5 45.0 3.8 7.6 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 5.1 17.6 14.3 113.0 67.9 51.6 5.0 9.7 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.5 10.5 95.8 63.1 49.6 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.4 21.2 13.0 103.9 64.9 49.0 7.7 13.6 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.0 12.3 11.4 92.3 61.6 47.0 3.6 8.0 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.2 14.0 12.6 98.4 63.1 48.4 3.9 8.4 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.2 9.7 11.2 91.4 60.0 45.6 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.3 12.8 12.2 105.2 65.2 48.5 3.0 6.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 4.4 16.7 13.1 112.6 68.1 49.6 4.4 8.9 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.8 14.7 13.1 90.4 60.0 48.3 4.1 9.7 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.0 9.4 11.1 88.2 61.1 44.3 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.1 11.8 12.2 104.8 65.2 48.4 2.8 6.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.4 7.6 11.1 98.8 64.4 52.1 2.1 4.4 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.5 16.1 13.5 99.5 62.9 49.5 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.9 10.2 90.4 61.1 49.4 3.0 7.0 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 5.0 15.1 15.7 101.5 63.0 47.9 5.1 9.8 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.4 13.1 11.2 92.2 61.4 46.8 4.1 8.7 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.7 9.7 11.4 95.5 63.1 51.8 2.8 6.1 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.2 10.3 85.7 58.2 46.9 2.7 6.4 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.0 14.3 12.5 94.1 61.1 49.2 3.8 9.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.4 12.1 12.0 89.7 60.1 45.4 4.0 8.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 5.4 16.5 13.9 111.2 67.4 50.6 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.8 10.7 11.5 90.6 60.6 46.2 3.4 7.3 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.6 8.5 11.2 92.9 62.2 45.4 2.5 5.4 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.6 21.8 14.9 103.2 64.1 50.6 6.8 13.4 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.5 9.6 10.0 89.1 61.0 48.5 2.9 6.3 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------