***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 18.0 28.3 42.9 82.8 48.4 42.8 17.6 29.6 45.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 17.6 27.9 39.7 83.4 48.9 43.2 17.0 28.7 43.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 43.8 34.1 42.1 82.9 48.0 42.9 22.9 35.9 51.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 58.1 47.6 49.2 84.3 49.3 43.3 32.7 48.5 67.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 44.3 36.0 44.7 83.7 48.3 42.8 25.2 37.3 51.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 23.4 39.7 50.4 94.5 54.3 46.5 22.9 35.9 51.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 15.6 26.2 39.8 83.9 49.4 43.5 15.8 26.7 40.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 61.3 54.2 50.2 89.4 50.5 45.6 39.3 53.8 70.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 43.0 33.7 44.5 82.4 46.8 42.2 24.7 36.2 50.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 51.9 42.5 48.6 85.0 47.6 43.5 31.3 44.4 59.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 42.5 34.0 44.2 84.6 48.4 43.0 23.2 35.2 49.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 42.2 37.4 45.5 91.0 52.2 45.8 23.9 35.7 50.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 45.0 43.6 49.5 96.4 56.0 47.2 26.0 38.5 53.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 36.2 48.5 49.2 80.8 43.9 40.9 37.1 55.3 77.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 20.5 38.2 52.0 92.4 55.5 47.4 20.5 33.3 49.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 39.9 35.1 46.2 90.7 52.5 45.2 21.7 33.2 46.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 14.1 23.0 38.8 81.4 47.4 42.5 14.5 24.7 38.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 52.0 41.9 51.6 86.2 47.6 43.8 30.2 44.1 60.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 23.1 34.3 40.1 82.1 47.6 42.5 22.9 36.5 53.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 56.2 50.3 62.8 92.3 51.8 46.7 34.8 48.9 65.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 44.3 35.6 43.3 82.8 47.8 42.5 24.8 37.2 52.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 21.0 30.9 40.6 80.5 46.2 42.2 22.0 33.8 48.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 24.1 34.1 41.3 80.7 45.6 41.4 23.9 38.2 55.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 55.0 41.3 47.3 83.9 46.6 42.7 29.0 44.9 64.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 21.9 34.9 48.9 87.0 50.8 44.2 20.9 34.3 51.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 46.3 45.4 50.9 98.1 56.8 48.6 27.4 39.8 54.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 18.2 28.5 45.3 84.5 49.2 43.4 17.9 29.2 43.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 22.5 35.6 48.2 88.8 52.6 45.4 22.4 33.5 47.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 71.0 60.7 54.9 88.1 48.5 44.5 45.1 62.0 81.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 37.9 29.5 40.7 83.6 49.1 43.2 18.8 30.2 44.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------