***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 7.4 7.6 9.7 -1.6 26.7 28.4 8.1 9.2 10.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 7.4 7.6 9.5 -1.5 26.6 28.6 8.2 9.4 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 9.8 10.0 9.9 -1.6 25.8 27.7 10.4 11.4 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 4.6 4.5 6.7 -2.1 20.0 22.4 5.5 6.7 7.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 6.4 6.5 8.0 -1.6 24.3 26.3 7.2 8.6 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 5.2 5.0 5.0 -1.9 20.1 22.4 6.3 7.6 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 7.7 7.9 9.5 -1.6 25.9 27.9 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 1.8 1.9 5.5 -1.7 20.7 23.0 2.7 3.7 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 7.9 8.0 8.1 -1.4 25.1 26.9 8.6 9.8 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 7.1 7.1 6.4 -1.7 21.4 23.6 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 6.4 6.5 7.5 -1.6 22.5 24.6 7.4 8.7 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 5.4 5.5 6.4 -1.7 22.2 24.5 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 5.7 5.5 6.4 -1.8 20.3 22.8 6.7 8.0 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 8.0 8.0 7.9 -1.5 24.2 26.3 8.6 9.6 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 7.1 7.2 8.4 -1.9 19.6 21.5 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 7.3 7.3 6.8 -1.8 21.7 23.9 8.3 9.5 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 7.9 8.2 9.2 -1.5 26.7 28.8 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 5.8 5.8 5.9 -1.6 22.0 24.5 6.7 7.9 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 7.8 8.0 9.6 -1.4 27.1 29.0 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 2.2 2.2 4.3 -1.7 21.4 24.4 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 6.9 7.1 9.0 -1.6 23.5 25.3 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 7.0 7.1 9.4 -1.5 25.9 28.1 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 7.4 7.6 9.6 -1.4 27.4 29.3 8.0 9.0 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 7.2 7.2 7.9 -1.5 24.0 26.1 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 7.5 7.7 8.9 -1.7 24.8 26.6 8.4 9.7 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 6.2 6.3 5.9 -1.7 22.5 24.8 7.1 8.3 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 7.6 7.9 9.2 -1.7 25.5 27.3 8.6 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 5.4 5.4 7.1 -2.0 19.9 22.2 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 5.7 5.7 5.1 -1.6 21.3 23.9 6.4 7.4 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 7.9 8.2 9.7 -1.5 26.7 28.6 8.6 9.7 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------