***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 19.2 19.4 18.5 -1.8 29.0 33.4 19.7 20.9 22.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 19.6 19.8 18.6 -1.8 29.0 33.1 20.1 21.3 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 19.7 20.0 18.9 -1.6 31.4 35.5 20.2 21.3 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 11.9 12.6 16.0 -1.4 34.6 39.0 12.5 14.1 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 19.6 19.9 17.1 -1.7 31.1 35.9 20.0 21.2 22.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 18.8 18.8 14.9 -2.1 27.7 34.1 19.2 20.6 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 19.3 19.4 18.4 -1.9 27.4 31.7 19.8 20.9 22.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 9.6 9.9 15.4 -1.7 31.4 37.3 10.0 11.3 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 19.7 20.2 18.3 -1.3 35.0 39.2 20.1 21.3 22.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 19.3 19.7 16.5 -1.5 33.2 38.2 19.7 21.0 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 19.7 20.1 17.6 -1.6 32.3 37.1 20.2 21.4 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 19.0 19.5 16.4 -1.5 32.9 38.3 19.5 20.8 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 20.3 20.3 16.9 -2.0 28.3 33.8 20.6 21.8 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 20.1 20.6 18.1 -1.4 33.5 37.9 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 19.0 19.7 18.5 -1.0 37.5 41.1 19.3 20.7 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 20.6 20.8 16.9 -1.7 31.0 36.2 21.0 22.2 23.3 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 18.9 19.1 18.1 -1.8 27.6 31.7 19.5 20.6 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 18.9 19.3 15.9 -1.5 34.0 39.3 19.2 20.5 21.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 19.4 19.8 19.0 -1.5 32.2 36.0 19.9 21.1 22.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 15.7 16.0 13.9 -1.7 31.0 38.0 16.1 17.3 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 19.6 19.8 18.6 -1.7 30.8 35.4 20.0 21.2 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 19.5 19.7 18.2 -1.9 27.3 31.7 20.2 21.4 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 19.9 20.6 19.5 -1.0 38.5 41.5 20.2 21.4 22.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 19.9 20.4 18.0 -1.4 34.7 39.0 20.3 21.5 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 19.1 19.1 17.3 -1.9 27.9 32.6 19.5 20.7 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 19.9 20.0 15.7 -1.8 30.2 36.0 20.2 21.5 22.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 19.4 19.5 17.8 -1.9 27.3 31.9 19.9 21.1 22.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 18.8 19.6 17.1 -1.3 35.4 39.7 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 15.0 15.3 15.2 -1.6 32.4 38.4 15.3 16.5 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 19.4 19.6 18.7 -1.7 29.4 33.5 19.9 21.0 22.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------