***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 17.2 16.7 16.3 0.0 49.5 50.2 15.3 16.7 18.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 17.1 16.6 16.2 -0.1 48.5 49.2 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.7 17.3 16.8 0.2 51.7 52.0 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.9 14.7 0.6 56.6 55.7 8.7 10.3 11.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.9 17.6 15.1 0.2 52.4 52.6 15.9 17.4 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.2 13.8 0.3 53.6 53.2 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.3 16.1 -0.2 47.3 48.3 15.3 16.5 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.0 14.2 0.5 55.6 54.6 7.2 8.6 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.7 15.6 0.3 53.3 53.3 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.3 14.8 0.4 54.5 53.9 15.5 17.0 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.6 15.1 0.3 53.5 53.3 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.6 15.0 0.5 55.7 54.8 15.5 17.1 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 18.4 18.0 14.5 0.3 52.7 52.5 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.1 17.6 15.4 0.1 51.1 51.3 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.6 15.5 0.9 59.9 58.0 14.7 16.0 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 18.8 18.6 15.0 0.4 54.0 53.6 16.7 18.2 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.6 15.9 15.8 -0.3 46.2 47.4 15.0 16.2 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.7 14.5 0.5 54.8 54.0 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.2 16.7 16.5 0.0 50.2 50.5 15.3 16.6 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.5 12.4 0.5 55.2 54.0 12.5 14.0 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.4 16.1 0.1 51.4 51.9 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 17.2 16.5 15.7 -0.3 46.5 47.5 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.2 16.8 0.2 52.4 52.4 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.8 15.6 0.3 53.5 53.2 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 17.0 16.5 14.9 0.0 50.2 50.8 15.3 16.5 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.8 14.5 0.6 56.2 55.1 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 17.6 17.0 15.6 -0.1 48.8 49.6 15.9 17.1 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.3 15.1 0.7 58.0 56.7 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.4 13.7 0.4 53.8 53.1 11.4 13.0 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 17.1 16.6 16.3 -0.1 49.2 49.8 15.4 16.6 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------