***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 12.9 15.2 14.7 -0.1 48.7 49.2 13.2 15.3 17.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 16.2 15.1 14.6 -0.2 47.9 48.7 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 13.3 15.8 15.1 0.0 50.1 50.1 13.8 15.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.7 10.1 13.1 0.7 57.8 55.5 7.2 9.2 11.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 13.4 16.2 13.6 0.3 52.9 52.3 13.9 15.9 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 12.8 15.5 12.3 0.2 52.3 52.7 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.0 14.8 14.5 -0.2 47.1 48.3 13.2 15.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.1 7.6 12.4 0.2 52.2 51.9 5.6 7.4 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 13.7 16.4 14.1 0.2 52.0 51.7 14.2 16.2 18.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 13.3 15.9 13.2 0.2 51.7 51.5 13.8 15.7 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 13.6 16.4 13.6 0.2 52.7 52.2 14.1 16.1 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 13.1 15.9 13.2 0.3 53.1 52.5 13.7 15.6 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 13.6 16.2 12.7 0.1 51.1 51.5 14.2 16.1 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 13.8 16.3 14.0 0.0 49.7 49.9 14.2 16.3 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.9 13.8 0.8 60.0 56.9 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 14.2 17.1 13.4 0.3 53.6 52.9 14.8 16.7 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.6 14.4 14.2 -0.3 46.2 47.5 13.0 14.8 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 12.4 15.2 13.0 0.1 51.3 51.3 13.1 15.1 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 13.0 15.3 14.9 -0.1 49.3 49.6 13.4 15.4 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 9.9 12.6 10.7 0.1 51.1 51.0 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 13.5 15.9 14.5 0.0 50.3 50.4 14.0 15.9 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 16.4 15.2 14.2 -0.3 46.3 47.4 13.6 15.6 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 13.3 15.8 15.2 0.1 51.1 50.8 13.6 15.7 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 13.6 16.5 14.1 0.1 51.1 50.9 14.2 16.4 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 12.9 15.2 13.3 0.0 50.4 50.5 13.3 15.1 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 13.4 16.2 12.7 0.3 54.1 53.3 14.0 15.8 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 13.2 15.4 14.1 -0.1 48.6 49.3 13.6 15.5 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 13.0 16.1 13.5 0.8 59.1 56.4 13.4 15.2 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 8.9 11.7 12.1 0.0 50.4 50.8 9.7 11.7 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 12.9 15.0 14.7 -0.1 48.3 49.0 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------