***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 16.9 17.5 16.9 -0.6 40.2 41.5 17.1 18.0 18.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 17.2 17.7 16.8 -0.6 39.1 40.5 17.4 18.1 18.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 17.4 18.1 17.3 -0.4 42.4 43.4 17.6 18.4 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 10.4 11.6 15.0 0.1 51.9 51.1 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 17.5 18.2 15.7 -0.3 44.1 45.0 17.6 18.5 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 16.9 17.5 14.0 -0.5 42.3 43.3 17.1 17.9 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 16.8 17.3 16.7 -0.7 37.4 39.0 17.1 17.9 18.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.4 9.1 14.3 -0.3 44.7 45.3 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 17.5 18.4 16.4 -0.2 46.7 46.9 17.7 18.6 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 17.1 18.0 15.2 -0.3 45.2 45.7 17.3 18.2 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 17.5 18.3 15.8 -0.3 44.7 45.4 17.7 18.6 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 17.1 18.0 15.2 -0.2 46.4 46.6 17.3 18.1 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 19.2 18.4 15.1 -0.6 40.9 42.2 18.0 18.9 19.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 17.8 18.5 16.2 -0.4 42.9 43.7 18.0 18.9 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.9 16.5 0.4 56.9 55.2 16.9 17.6 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 18.3 19.1 15.5 -0.3 44.9 45.4 18.5 19.3 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 16.6 17.0 16.4 -0.8 36.4 38.2 16.8 17.6 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 16.5 17.3 14.8 -0.3 45.2 45.6 16.7 17.6 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 17.1 17.7 17.1 -0.4 42.2 43.0 17.3 18.1 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 13.8 14.5 12.7 -0.4 42.7 43.8 14.0 14.9 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 17.4 18.0 16.8 -0.5 42.2 43.3 17.6 18.4 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 17.2 17.7 16.4 -0.8 36.4 38.2 17.5 18.3 19.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 18.7 18.3 17.5 -0.1 47.4 47.3 17.6 18.4 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 17.6 18.5 16.3 -0.3 45.2 45.5 17.8 18.7 19.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 16.9 17.4 15.6 -0.6 40.3 41.8 17.0 17.8 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 17.6 18.3 14.6 -0.3 45.3 45.6 17.7 18.5 19.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 17.1 17.7 16.2 -0.6 38.7 40.3 17.4 18.2 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 18.3 18.1 15.7 0.2 53.9 52.7 17.0 17.9 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 12.8 13.6 14.0 -0.4 42.7 43.7 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 17.0 17.5 16.9 -0.6 39.7 41.0 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------