***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.7 8.3 11.4 102.9 65.7 48.0 2.6 5.0 8.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.4 9.5 11.2 105.4 66.6 50.8 2.4 5.2 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.3 11.1 11.6 108.7 67.4 48.0 3.0 6.2 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 6.6 21.1 13.0 114.5 69.5 44.1 6.7 12.0 19.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 4.0 14.9 12.9 120.8 71.0 46.3 4.1 7.8 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.0 14.7 14.1 121.7 70.9 44.1 3.1 6.7 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.6 8.9 10.5 96.4 63.7 48.7 2.4 5.3 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 5.8 17.9 14.6 106.2 66.5 45.3 6.1 11.0 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.8 12.2 12.5 113.1 68.7 46.2 3.8 7.0 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.3 13.6 14.6 111.4 67.9 46.4 4.3 7.9 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.1 13.1 13.1 117.5 70.2 45.5 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.2 13.0 13.1 111.5 68.4 45.5 3.2 6.7 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.5 16.2 15.9 130.5 73.3 46.3 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.1 18.2 15.4 116.5 69.4 51.6 4.7 9.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 3.9 16.2 11.9 120.9 71.4 40.2 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.0 13.3 13.6 120.6 71.0 45.2 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.0 8.1 10.2 94.2 63.0 48.6 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.8 15.1 15.7 113.2 68.2 48.5 4.6 8.7 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.6 11.0 11.8 110.8 68.1 51.6 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.6 17.4 16.8 110.7 67.8 48.1 5.3 10.0 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.7 11.9 12.0 109.2 67.5 46.9 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.0 10.1 11.4 103.5 65.9 51.3 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.2 12.5 12.4 114.4 69.1 51.5 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.7 11.7 13.7 111.1 67.9 48.6 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.7 13.7 13.0 112.3 68.9 47.7 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.7 17.8 13.6 127.2 72.7 46.3 3.8 7.9 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.8 9.0 11.8 104.9 66.6 48.7 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 4.1 15.8 12.7 120.2 71.0 43.0 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.1 19.6 16.0 112.2 67.9 48.7 6.1 11.2 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.3 9.6 11.2 107.8 67.4 50.2 2.3 5.0 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------