***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.5 7.8 11.3 87.6 60.0 44.7 1.8 4.9 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.9 9.3 10.9 91.3 60.4 42.1 2.9 6.2 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.4 9.6 10.6 83.7 58.0 43.2 2.7 6.8 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.9 13.2 12.2 87.7 60.7 41.5 3.7 8.6 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.2 9.7 11.0 81.9 58.2 42.1 3.2 7.0 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 4.1 11.7 11.7 84.1 58.4 42.1 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.3 8.2 10.8 93.7 61.3 43.1 2.3 5.2 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 5.1 16.5 13.7 93.6 61.8 43.1 5.3 10.9 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.9 10.5 10.9 83.1 59.0 44.6 3.3 7.4 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.2 12.0 12.4 86.7 59.5 44.0 3.7 8.2 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.9 9.2 12.1 85.9 58.6 42.0 3.1 6.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 2.2 9.8 12.5 92.1 61.3 42.2 2.3 5.9 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 3.2 10.6 11.7 84.9 59.3 41.6 3.2 7.3 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.2 14.5 13.2 90.2 59.8 45.3 3.9 9.7 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.3 8.0 11.7 83.2 59.3 39.0 2.5 5.6 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.7 8.8 11.7 85.5 59.2 42.7 2.5 6.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 1.9 6.3 11.1 91.4 60.7 41.4 2.0 4.3 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.1 14.0 13.2 89.5 59.9 45.8 4.7 9.7 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.0 9.8 10.9 89.5 59.7 41.8 2.7 6.4 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.7 12.1 16.6 94.9 61.3 44.8 3.4 7.8 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.3 10.6 10.4 81.0 57.9 42.9 3.8 8.0 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.8 8.3 11.7 89.2 59.8 40.6 2.7 5.8 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.2 11.4 88.5 59.2 42.7 2.4 6.0 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.4 14.1 12.1 86.8 58.9 45.6 4.5 10.0 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.4 9.8 12.4 86.2 59.4 42.8 2.8 6.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.3 10.5 12.8 86.5 59.8 41.2 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.2 8.9 12.0 86.2 59.2 44.3 2.7 6.2 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.2 7.3 11.5 86.3 60.2 40.6 2.2 5.0 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.3 17.6 14.5 92.0 60.2 45.9 5.8 12.1 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.4 7.8 10.8 89.1 59.4 42.4 2.3 5.4 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------