***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.2 9.9 81.4 58.5 45.6 3.6 8.0 14.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.9 10.8 11.0 98.0 64.3 51.5 2.5 6.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.4 11.1 10.8 89.5 61.3 48.0 3.3 7.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.6 9.6 11.3 78.8 58.1 44.1 2.9 6.9 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.3 11.7 84.7 59.2 46.0 3.5 6.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.9 13.2 92.8 61.2 49.0 2.3 5.1 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.0 11.2 97.5 64.2 51.0 2.6 5.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.7 13.1 13.6 89.0 60.1 49.4 5.2 9.6 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.3 9.8 12.3 87.8 60.2 47.5 4.0 7.2 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.9 13.5 88.9 60.2 48.8 4.2 8.3 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.5 12.0 88.5 60.6 48.5 3.8 7.4 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.8 9.4 12.3 89.8 60.5 49.2 3.3 6.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.7 13.3 94.9 62.1 49.7 3.0 6.2 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.0 20.4 15.0 101.3 64.7 52.4 6.1 12.3 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.7 8.9 12.2 80.1 59.4 42.3 2.1 5.8 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.8 9.4 12.2 90.0 61.0 48.3 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.9 9.8 11.2 101.7 65.5 52.1 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.5 10.9 14.0 88.6 59.5 48.3 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.0 15.3 10.9 96.9 63.8 51.4 4.0 9.0 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.8 16.1 85.0 57.7 48.1 4.3 8.9 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.4 11.4 88.7 60.9 46.9 3.3 6.9 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.9 12.1 11.7 102.4 65.4 53.3 2.9 6.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.2 14.0 10.9 93.0 62.4 50.6 4.1 8.7 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.3 15.0 13.2 94.4 62.1 49.9 4.3 9.5 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.5 10.7 78.9 57.7 44.0 3.1 7.1 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.8 8.7 12.9 90.9 61.1 47.6 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.6 10.4 81.3 58.6 45.3 3.2 7.0 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.3 9.2 11.9 84.3 60.2 45.1 2.9 6.2 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.4 15.4 14.8 89.3 59.4 48.7 5.7 11.2 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.8 12.6 10.9 93.9 63.0 50.1 3.5 7.7 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------