***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.8 8.1 13.0 104.2 65.9 50.7 2.5 4.9 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.6 8.2 11.9 109.9 67.7 52.0 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.3 8.8 12.5 99.2 64.0 50.1 3.1 5.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.9 12.6 95.7 62.6 46.4 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.2 10.2 13.9 107.7 66.5 50.4 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.5 8.6 15.5 111.1 67.5 48.3 2.4 4.7 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.3 7.0 12.3 114.8 69.3 52.5 2.3 4.0 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.9 13.8 17.2 116.5 69.1 53.1 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.3 9.1 14.2 105.6 65.9 50.8 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.2 12.2 16.5 113.1 68.0 53.1 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.6 14.3 110.8 67.5 51.8 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.8 9.0 15.1 115.5 68.9 51.9 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.9 10.4 15.4 112.0 67.8 50.5 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.2 12.0 15.4 100.3 64.2 51.6 3.5 7.3 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.3 5.8 11.1 81.7 58.5 41.7 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.4 8.3 14.0 107.6 66.4 50.0 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.5 8.9 12.0 114.4 69.0 52.6 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.2 11.2 17.7 115.2 68.6 53.9 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.7 9.3 11.9 106.0 66.3 51.5 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.3 13.4 22.5 119.5 69.8 54.7 3.2 6.5 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.7 8.9 12.8 98.7 63.6 49.0 2.9 5.6 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.2 11.1 12.8 113.2 68.4 52.3 2.7 5.8 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.2 10.1 12.2 101.3 64.7 50.8 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.0 11.0 15.2 104.8 65.6 51.7 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.4 7.4 13.2 98.7 63.7 48.6 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.0 11.0 15.4 109.6 66.9 48.1 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.6 7.5 13.6 107.1 66.6 51.3 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.6 6.7 12.0 92.6 61.7 45.2 2.4 4.6 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.6 15.9 19.3 117.3 69.1 54.2 4.9 8.9 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.5 7.7 12.2 108.5 67.2 51.6 2.3 4.5 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------