***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 7.3 7.0 9.4 -2.1 19.2 21.3 8.1 9.1 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 7.2 7.0 9.2 -1.9 19.8 22.6 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 9.6 9.3 9.5 -2.2 17.7 20.2 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 4.8 4.9 7.3 -1.5 26.1 28.0 5.4 6.6 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 6.4 5.9 7.9 -2.1 17.8 20.6 7.3 8.5 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 5.4 5.3 5.6 -1.9 20.0 22.8 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 7.6 7.5 9.2 -1.9 21.0 23.5 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 1.8 1.4 5.5 -2.2 14.9 18.8 2.7 3.6 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 8.0 7.8 8.4 -1.6 22.3 25.6 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 7.3 6.9 6.6 -2.0 17.9 21.6 8.0 9.1 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 6.6 6.3 7.8 -1.8 19.3 22.6 7.4 8.5 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 5.4 5.0 6.4 -2.2 15.6 18.9 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 5.8 5.5 6.8 -1.9 18.3 21.5 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 8.0 7.6 7.9 -1.9 17.9 21.7 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.9 8.7 9.8 -0.7 37.4 38.4 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 7.5 7.2 7.1 -1.9 19.3 22.2 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 7.9 7.8 8.9 -1.8 20.9 23.7 8.5 9.3 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 5.9 5.4 5.8 -2.2 15.4 18.9 6.8 7.8 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 7.7 7.4 9.2 -1.9 19.2 22.1 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 2.0 0.8 3.7 -2.8 8.5 12.2 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 6.9 6.8 9.2 -2.0 19.2 21.8 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 6.7 6.5 9.1 -1.9 19.2 22.2 7.5 8.4 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 7.2 6.9 9.2 -1.9 19.2 22.3 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 7.1 6.9 8.0 -1.9 18.2 21.5 7.8 8.6 9.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 7.3 7.0 8.7 -2.3 17.4 19.5 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 6.1 5.6 5.8 -2.4 14.3 16.9 7.2 8.3 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 7.4 7.1 9.0 -2.2 18.7 20.8 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 6.3 6.4 8.0 -1.3 29.8 31.6 6.7 7.8 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 5.4 4.7 4.9 -2.4 12.5 16.2 6.3 7.2 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 7.8 7.5 9.3 -2.0 19.2 21.7 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------