***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 7.9 7.2 9.7 -0.3 45.5 46.0 6.3 7.5 8.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 7.8 7.3 9.3 -0.2 47.4 47.8 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 9.8 9.3 9.8 -0.3 46.1 46.5 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 5.3 4.7 7.0 -0.3 45.9 46.4 3.8 5.0 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 7.0 6.2 7.7 -0.4 43.8 44.5 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.6 5.5 -0.5 42.9 43.7 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 7.8 7.4 9.4 -0.1 47.9 48.2 6.4 7.5 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 2.4 1.7 5.7 -0.4 43.9 44.7 1.0 2.1 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 7.9 7.2 7.9 -0.4 43.7 44.3 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 7.6 7.0 6.5 -0.4 44.0 44.7 6.3 7.3 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 7.2 6.4 7.2 -0.5 42.0 42.9 5.9 6.9 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.5 6.4 -0.5 42.6 43.7 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.8 5.9 6.1 -0.6 40.5 41.7 5.5 6.4 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 8.0 7.6 7.9 -0.2 47.2 47.4 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 7.9 7.3 8.4 -0.4 43.7 44.6 6.8 7.6 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.1 7.4 6.6 -0.5 41.8 42.9 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 7.8 7.6 9.2 0.1 51.5 51.3 6.5 7.5 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 6.6 6.1 6.1 -0.2 46.2 46.6 5.3 6.3 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 7.8 7.3 9.4 -0.2 47.2 47.6 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.9 2.3 4.5 -0.3 45.8 46.3 1.5 2.5 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 7.4 6.7 9.1 -0.3 44.8 45.3 5.9 7.1 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 7.1 6.8 9.3 0.0 50.0 49.9 5.8 6.8 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 7.5 7.1 9.4 -0.1 48.0 48.2 6.2 7.2 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 7.0 6.6 7.8 -0.2 46.3 46.7 5.9 6.8 7.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.0 7.2 8.8 -0.4 44.1 44.9 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.3 5.7 -0.6 40.8 41.8 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 8.1 7.2 9.3 -0.3 45.3 45.8 6.1 7.6 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.7 7.3 -0.3 44.5 45.4 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.3 5.5 -0.3 45.6 46.1 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 8.1 7.5 9.5 -0.2 46.5 47.0 6.5 7.7 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------