***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.8 9.4 1.0 64.6 61.1 5.2 6.0 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 7.1 6.9 9.1 1.1 66.4 62.2 5.0 5.9 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 9.2 8.9 9.5 1.0 65.6 62.2 7.2 8.1 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 4.4 4.3 6.8 1.1 67.5 64.0 2.2 3.2 4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 6.6 6.4 7.2 1.1 67.2 63.9 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 6.1 6.0 5.7 1.2 68.7 65.4 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 7.0 6.7 9.2 1.1 65.5 61.5 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 2.4 2.3 5.7 1.1 67.9 63.9 0.1 1.1 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 7.6 7.4 7.7 1.2 67.1 63.8 5.3 6.3 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 7.1 7.0 6.4 1.2 67.4 63.7 4.9 6.0 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 6.7 6.6 6.7 1.1 67.6 64.2 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 5.9 5.8 6.2 1.1 67.2 63.7 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 6.4 6.2 5.9 1.1 66.6 63.5 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.2 7.5 1.0 64.6 61.2 5.5 6.4 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 6.8 6.7 7.8 1.1 68.3 64.9 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 7.5 7.5 6.3 1.2 67.7 64.4 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 7.0 6.8 9.0 1.1 66.7 62.3 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 6.0 5.9 5.9 1.1 66.8 63.0 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 7.1 6.9 9.1 1.1 66.2 62.3 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 3.1 3.2 4.4 1.3 68.5 63.9 0.9 2.0 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 7.1 6.9 8.8 1.1 65.9 62.6 4.9 6.0 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 6.3 6.1 8.8 1.0 65.2 61.2 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 6.9 6.7 9.1 1.0 65.8 62.3 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.4 7.3 1.0 65.8 62.4 4.7 5.6 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 7.6 7.3 8.2 1.0 65.1 61.7 5.5 6.5 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 6.6 6.4 5.7 1.1 66.5 63.4 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.4 8.9 1.0 64.6 61.1 5.5 6.5 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 5.7 5.6 7.0 1.2 68.7 65.0 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 5.2 5.2 5.4 1.1 66.6 62.6 3.1 4.1 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 7.3 7.1 9.3 1.1 65.6 61.8 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------