***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 6.0 6.4 9.0 -0.4 40.6 41.9 6.1 6.8 7.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 5.8 6.5 8.8 -0.2 45.3 45.6 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 8.1 8.6 9.2 -0.4 41.3 42.5 8.3 8.9 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.5 4.0 6.6 -0.2 45.5 45.9 3.5 4.2 4.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.1 5.6 7.1 -0.4 40.8 42.0 5.3 6.0 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.1 5.1 -0.3 43.4 44.2 4.7 5.4 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.9 6.5 8.8 -0.2 44.4 45.0 6.1 6.7 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 0.8 1.2 5.2 -0.4 40.8 41.9 0.9 1.6 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.2 6.8 7.5 -0.2 44.2 44.7 6.3 7.1 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.9 6.4 6.0 -0.3 42.2 43.0 6.0 6.7 7.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.4 5.9 6.6 -0.3 41.2 42.3 5.5 6.2 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.5 4.9 5.9 -0.4 39.7 40.9 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.4 5.7 -0.4 40.6 41.7 5.0 5.8 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.4 6.9 7.3 -0.3 43.7 44.3 6.5 7.2 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.0 6.8 8.0 0.0 50.5 50.0 6.2 6.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.8 6.1 -0.4 41.2 42.3 6.4 7.1 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 6.0 6.8 8.7 -0.1 48.2 48.0 6.2 6.8 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.7 5.2 5.5 -0.3 41.8 42.7 4.9 5.6 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 6.0 6.6 8.8 -0.2 44.6 45.1 6.2 6.8 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 1.3 1.8 3.8 -0.5 39.2 40.5 1.5 2.3 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.6 6.2 8.6 -0.3 42.2 43.1 5.8 6.6 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.3 5.9 8.6 -0.2 46.1 46.2 5.5 6.1 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.8 6.4 8.8 -0.2 44.4 44.9 5.9 6.6 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.6 6.1 7.2 -0.3 43.0 43.7 5.7 6.3 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 6.1 6.6 8.0 -0.5 39.3 40.8 6.4 7.1 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.7 5.3 -0.5 38.6 39.9 5.5 6.1 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 6.1 6.7 8.6 -0.4 40.0 41.4 6.3 7.1 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.3 6.9 -0.1 47.6 47.6 4.7 5.4 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.1 4.5 4.9 -0.4 40.3 41.5 4.2 4.9 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 6.2 6.8 9.0 -0.3 43.1 43.9 6.3 7.0 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------