***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 17.9 16.5 15.8 -4.2 7.4 10.5 19.5 20.8 22.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 95 5 0 100 18.3 17.0 16.1 -4.0 8.3 11.7 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 18.4 16.7 15.6 -4.7 6.0 8.8 19.9 21.2 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 10.3 8.8 12.7 -4.5 8.6 11.2 12.2 13.9 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 98 2 0 100 18.2 16.1 13.4 -5.3 4.5 7.1 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 97 3 0 100 17.5 15.0 11.3 -5.6 3.6 6.0 19.2 20.5 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 95 5 0 100 18.1 16.7 16.0 -4.1 7.8 11.1 19.5 20.8 22.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 97 3 0 100 8.3 5.3 11.1 -6.0 2.3 5.0 9.8 11.1 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 18.3 16.1 14.3 -5.1 4.5 7.3 19.8 21.2 22.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 97 3 0 100 17.8 15.0 12.1 -5.9 2.9 5.6 19.4 20.8 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 98 2 0 100 18.3 15.8 13.4 -5.7 3.5 6.0 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 97 3 0 100 17.6 14.7 12.3 -5.7 2.9 5.5 19.3 20.6 21.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 18.9 16.4 13.1 -5.9 3.0 5.3 20.4 21.7 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 18.4 15.7 14.1 -5.2 3.8 6.8 20.1 21.5 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 94 6 0 100 17.4 16.7 15.8 -3.8 12.2 14.5 19.1 20.5 21.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 19.2 16.9 13.1 -5.5 3.9 6.4 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 92 8 0 100 17.8 16.5 15.9 -3.8 8.8 12.5 19.2 20.4 21.6 30 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 17.2 13.9 11.3 -6.0 2.3 5.2 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 18.0 16.7 16.0 -4.1 7.9 11.2 19.6 20.9 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 96 4 0 100 14.4 10.7 9.4 -6.3 1.3 4.3 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 18.3 16.3 15.2 -5.0 4.8 7.4 19.8 21.1 22.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 18.3 16.9 15.9 -3.9 8.3 11.6 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 18.3 16.8 15.8 -4.3 7.1 10.4 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 96 4 0 100 18.3 15.7 13.8 -5.5 3.4 6.3 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 17.9 16.5 14.5 -4.5 6.7 9.5 19.4 20.6 21.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 18.7 16.1 11.7 -5.8 2.8 5.3 20.1 21.3 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 18.3 16.8 15.3 -4.3 6.9 10.0 19.8 21.0 22.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 17.2 15.7 13.8 -4.5 8.9 11.3 19.1 20.7 22.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 96 4 0 100 13.4 10.0 10.6 -6.2 1.7 4.6 14.9 16.2 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 18.1 16.7 16.0 -4.2 7.7 10.8 19.6 20.9 22.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------