***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 19.2 19.5 18.4 0.6 58.3 57.0 17.2 18.8 20.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 19.5 20.0 18.7 0.9 61.2 59.4 17.5 19.0 20.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 19.6 19.9 18.8 0.7 59.4 57.9 17.6 19.1 20.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 12.5 12.6 15.7 0.6 57.4 56.2 10.6 12.0 13.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 19.6 19.6 16.9 0.5 56.5 55.8 17.7 19.1 20.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 19.1 19.0 15.4 0.5 55.6 54.8 17.0 18.5 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 19.1 19.5 18.5 0.7 59.5 58.1 17.1 18.6 20.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.5 15.7 0.7 58.9 57.8 8.4 9.8 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 19.7 19.9 17.6 0.7 58.5 57.4 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 19.3 19.6 16.5 0.8 59.2 58.0 17.3 18.8 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 19.7 19.7 17.1 0.6 56.8 56.1 17.7 19.2 20.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 19.3 19.3 16.4 0.6 57.5 56.7 17.3 18.7 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 19.8 19.6 16.6 0.2 52.6 52.9 18.0 19.4 20.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 20.0 20.7 17.9 1.0 62.0 60.0 18.0 19.6 21.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 18.8 18.9 17.2 0.5 56.4 55.4 17.1 18.4 19.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 20.4 20.3 16.7 0.4 55.3 55.0 18.4 19.9 21.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 19.0 19.5 18.4 0.9 61.6 59.6 16.9 18.5 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 18.5 18.9 16.2 0.9 60.9 59.3 16.6 18.0 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 19.4 19.9 18.8 0.9 61.6 59.7 17.4 18.9 20.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.1 14.2 0.8 58.9 57.8 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 19.5 19.6 18.3 0.6 57.6 56.6 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 19.7 20.2 18.4 0.8 60.8 59.1 17.6 19.2 20.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 19.7 20.3 18.9 1.0 63.0 60.6 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 19.7 20.2 17.8 0.9 61.1 59.4 17.7 19.2 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 18.9 19.0 17.1 0.5 56.3 55.3 17.2 18.5 19.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 19.6 19.4 15.7 0.3 53.6 53.8 17.7 19.1 20.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 19.3 19.5 17.8 0.6 57.6 56.3 17.4 18.8 20.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 19.1 19.2 16.4 0.5 57.1 56.0 17.1 18.6 19.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 14.8 15.2 15.5 0.9 60.2 58.7 12.8 14.3 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 19.1 19.5 18.6 0.8 59.9 58.4 17.2 18.7 20.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------