***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 16.6 17.0 16.6 -0.7 34.9 38.1 16.9 17.8 18.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 16.8 17.4 16.9 -0.5 39.3 41.7 17.1 17.9 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 17.1 17.5 16.9 -0.7 35.0 38.1 17.3 18.2 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.4 14.1 -0.7 35.4 38.5 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 17.1 17.3 15.0 -1.0 31.8 35.5 17.4 18.2 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 16.7 16.9 13.7 -0.9 34.5 37.6 16.8 17.7 18.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 16.6 17.0 16.7 -0.6 37.4 40.2 16.8 17.6 18.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.1 8.4 13.7 -0.9 33.2 36.5 8.4 9.2 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 17.2 17.5 15.7 -0.9 33.8 37.1 17.5 18.4 19.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 16.8 17.1 14.5 -0.9 33.3 36.6 17.1 18.0 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 17.1 17.3 15.1 -1.0 32.0 35.5 17.4 18.3 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 16.7 17.0 14.5 -0.9 33.1 36.3 17.0 17.9 18.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 17.3 17.6 14.6 -1.1 30.9 34.5 17.8 18.6 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 17.5 17.9 15.8 -0.7 36.4 39.2 17.7 18.6 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 17.7 16.9 15.6 -0.5 39.3 41.4 16.6 17.3 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 17.9 18.2 14.8 -1.0 32.6 35.9 18.2 19.1 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 16.3 16.9 16.6 -0.5 40.7 42.9 16.5 17.3 18.1 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 16.1 16.5 14.1 -0.9 34.4 37.6 16.4 17.3 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 16.7 17.3 17.0 -0.5 39.4 41.6 17.0 17.9 18.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 13.6 13.8 12.1 -0.9 32.8 36.4 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 17.0 17.3 16.3 -0.9 32.1 35.7 17.3 18.2 19.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 17.0 17.5 16.6 -0.5 39.4 41.8 17.2 18.0 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 17.1 17.7 17.0 -0.5 40.0 42.0 17.3 18.1 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 17.2 17.7 15.7 -0.8 35.0 38.2 17.6 18.5 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 16.5 16.7 15.2 -0.9 32.4 36.2 16.7 17.5 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 17.2 17.4 14.0 -1.0 32.1 35.6 17.5 18.3 19.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 16.9 17.2 16.0 -0.8 34.0 37.5 17.2 18.0 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 16.6 16.9 14.8 -0.7 36.8 39.5 16.7 17.6 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 12.6 12.9 13.5 -0.9 33.7 37.1 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 16.7 17.1 16.8 -0.6 37.4 40.1 16.9 17.7 18.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------