***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 8.6 14.5 21.5 206.7 87.0 69.4 2.1 4.1 7.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 11.1 14.7 14.4 151.0 77.7 62.0 2.4 5.3 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 12.0 20.9 21.7 215.1 87.5 69.2 2.7 5.5 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 21.3 53.0 31.4 290.8 93.8 74.7 4.9 9.9 17.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 13.3 30.9 30.5 317.0 95.2 79.9 3.4 6.2 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 16.8 38.5 32.9 292.4 93.9 81.8 3.4 6.9 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 11.7 15.7 14.9 155.1 78.5 62.6 2.4 5.4 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 20.9 40.8 34.8 273.1 92.4 79.1 5.3 9.8 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 13.1 28.9 29.3 281.9 93.9 78.0 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 14.2 31.2 36.5 300.0 95.0 81.9 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 11.8 29.2 33.3 313.7 94.9 80.1 2.5 5.1 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 13.3 27.6 29.0 260.0 91.4 77.7 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 16.0 40.1 39.3 343.4 95.6 84.7 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 18.4 32.6 26.6 213.0 87.7 69.1 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 14.7 35.8 31.5 308.3 93.2 73.7 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 13.9 30.9 31.5 285.7 92.6 79.7 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.5 13.2 12.9 139.3 75.0 59.0 2.5 5.4 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 16.7 33.5 35.8 257.4 92.1 79.0 3.7 7.4 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 11.5 14.9 15.3 151.8 77.7 62.1 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 22.2 48.4 40.5 271.4 93.3 80.7 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 12.8 24.9 26.1 259.4 92.3 74.0 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.3 11.7 11.9 116.6 69.2 54.7 2.9 6.0 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 12.2 16.9 17.6 166.0 80.5 63.7 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 12.1 23.2 28.9 244.7 91.0 74.6 3.1 5.9 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 14.7 30.6 26.3 256.6 91.4 75.4 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 17.0 28.2 25.2 232.9 88.7 75.4 3.9 7.6 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 10.7 18.0 22.1 205.4 86.5 70.7 2.5 4.9 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 12.6 32.9 32.7 312.3 94.2 76.7 2.4 5.2 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 21.8 40.2 35.7 245.0 91.2 77.7 5.6 10.4 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 10.8 15.5 16.4 168.0 80.8 64.3 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------