***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.8 5.3 9.2 61.9 49.8 38.3 2.2 5.3 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.5 6.4 8.8 66.1 51.0 42.2 2.9 6.1 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.4 6.8 9.6 68.4 51.3 40.2 2.7 6.5 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.2 6.7 10.0 59.7 48.2 36.6 3.1 7.3 14.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.4 5.9 8.8 57.1 46.5 37.0 3.2 6.7 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.2 8.8 10.9 73.0 52.4 42.7 3.7 7.9 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.8 5.2 8.8 64.4 50.1 40.4 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.4 6.6 8.1 51.8 41.5 33.3 4.3 9.4 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.6 5.8 8.5 56.4 45.4 36.5 3.3 7.0 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.9 5.5 8.1 51.0 41.4 33.2 3.6 7.9 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.5 6.0 9.2 60.5 47.1 38.0 3.1 6.6 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.9 5.2 8.6 59.1 46.3 37.0 2.6 6.2 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.4 5.5 7.9 52.9 44.6 33.3 3.1 7.0 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.7 7.0 9.6 56.3 43.5 35.8 4.0 9.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.9 5.7 10.4 58.3 49.0 38.0 2.8 5.9 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.8 6.7 10.3 71.6 53.0 41.5 2.4 5.9 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.5 4.8 9.3 71.7 52.7 42.9 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.7 6.2 8.7 53.6 41.5 34.7 4.0 8.8 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.4 6.3 8.7 65.3 50.1 41.5 2.5 6.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 2.5 2.6 7.9 40.6 31.6 26.9 2.8 6.5 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.7 6.8 9.2 61.2 48.7 39.0 3.3 7.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.1 5.7 9.5 68.2 50.8 41.8 2.6 5.6 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.4 6.1 9.1 65.0 49.5 40.9 2.7 6.3 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.8 7.5 9.2 60.4 46.0 37.1 3.8 8.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.6 5.8 9.6 56.0 46.1 37.4 3.1 6.7 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.8 5.8 9.4 59.8 44.4 37.5 3.5 7.4 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.1 5.2 9.5 58.5 47.7 38.3 2.5 5.6 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.6 5.5 10.1 63.9 51.0 38.5 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 5.6 7.3 9.3 53.4 39.8 33.8 5.4 11.3 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.9 5.5 8.8 63.4 49.9 40.5 2.4 5.5 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------