***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.6 12.5 10.3 88.0 61.2 48.3 3.8 8.3 15.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 10.7 10.4 96.6 63.3 48.2 2.6 6.2 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.2 11.4 10.0 86.4 60.1 47.0 3.5 7.7 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.1 12.8 11.7 95.0 63.4 45.9 3.4 7.6 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.6 12.0 11.0 95.0 63.0 47.0 4.2 7.9 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.6 8.1 11.8 95.7 63.5 45.8 2.2 4.8 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.9 10.0 10.6 95.0 63.1 47.8 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.8 15.2 12.1 96.4 62.8 46.2 5.3 10.1 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.6 12.5 11.8 100.3 64.9 50.8 4.6 8.1 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.7 14.5 12.0 95.8 62.7 47.3 5.1 9.6 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.4 11.7 10.7 95.8 63.4 46.9 3.7 7.4 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.2 11.3 98.5 64.0 46.9 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.2 9.7 11.1 91.9 62.4 42.2 2.8 6.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.9 19.9 12.8 97.9 62.6 49.3 6.1 12.9 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.2 11.7 12.0 92.7 63.9 44.9 2.5 6.4 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.6 10.0 10.9 95.8 63.4 45.7 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.2 9.9 11.2 101.8 65.2 49.5 2.4 5.4 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.6 10.9 11.8 87.3 58.3 43.9 4.1 8.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.5 15.5 10.3 96.9 63.4 48.5 4.2 9.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.7 13.1 13.9 82.8 57.0 41.4 5.1 10.4 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.8 13.1 10.9 93.9 62.8 48.9 4.1 8.3 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.1 14.0 11.9 108.5 66.9 50.5 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.3 15.1 10.4 97.1 63.5 49.2 4.1 9.1 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.4 14.7 11.5 90.8 60.1 46.7 4.9 10.1 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.4 14.0 12.1 97.5 64.4 49.9 3.6 8.0 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.8 12.3 12.9 104.8 66.7 47.7 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.3 12.1 11.3 92.1 62.5 49.4 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.6 10.6 11.0 94.4 63.5 44.8 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.2 15.9 12.6 88.2 58.9 45.1 6.7 12.1 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.4 12.8 10.2 92.3 62.1 47.5 3.8 8.1 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------