***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.4 9.7 93.8 62.6 48.7 2.7 5.1 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.6 6.6 9.2 90.8 61.7 48.5 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.0 7.7 9.8 94.7 62.8 48.8 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.7 9.8 10.2 92.7 62.7 46.8 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.2 8.8 10.4 97.1 63.7 46.7 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.2 7.7 9.2 93.1 62.2 46.8 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.7 9.0 87.9 60.1 47.3 2.5 4.3 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.6 11.7 11.9 102.4 65.0 49.5 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.4 8.3 10.9 98.7 64.0 48.1 3.3 5.6 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.9 10.2 12.0 101.4 64.5 49.5 3.6 6.5 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.2 8.5 10.4 98.7 64.3 47.6 3.0 5.6 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.9 7.9 10.5 102.1 65.4 49.0 2.7 4.9 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.4 9.4 9.9 100.3 64.5 47.2 2.9 5.8 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.6 10.1 11.9 94.3 61.8 48.3 3.5 6.8 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.6 8.9 78.0 58.2 43.2 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.4 7.3 9.6 97.3 63.7 46.7 2.0 4.4 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.8 7.1 8.9 83.3 59.2 46.8 2.4 5.1 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.5 10.0 12.6 105.4 65.4 50.8 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.7 8.1 9.5 94.8 62.9 49.2 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.4 11.0 15.2 103.8 65.0 49.0 3.2 6.5 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.7 8.2 10.2 100.2 64.5 49.0 2.4 5.0 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.9 7.7 9.3 83.5 58.9 46.0 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.9 9.2 10.2 100.1 64.4 49.8 2.7 5.6 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.8 10.2 11.3 100.2 63.8 49.6 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.4 6.6 10.3 96.2 63.5 48.8 2.4 4.3 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.0 8.6 10.0 96.9 63.0 47.1 3.0 5.6 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.3 6.2 10.0 96.4 63.6 49.6 2.1 4.1 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.2 7.4 9.3 87.7 61.0 45.3 2.9 5.3 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.2 14.2 13.2 103.4 64.8 50.3 5.1 9.1 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.3 6.0 9.3 92.3 61.9 48.3 2.2 4.2 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------