***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 36.1 42.2 50.7 107.2 63.2 56.6 18.9 30.6 45.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 35.5 36.4 42.7 97.9 58.2 52.3 17.9 29.5 44.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 40.5 48.9 51.1 111.0 65.0 57.4 22.4 34.8 50.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 54.1 71.7 63.3 124.5 71.2 60.8 29.7 45.1 63.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 52.1 57.0 60.7 128.2 73.0 63.7 21.5 33.4 48.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 39.8 61.8 64.8 133.8 75.5 64.9 21.5 34.0 49.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 32.8 34.2 43.3 97.0 58.0 52.2 18.4 28.4 40.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 74.4 78.2 67.0 127.2 72.8 64.1 34.9 50.4 68.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 52.8 54.7 60.5 125.4 71.8 63.5 22.6 34.0 48.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 63.2 68.0 68.6 130.8 74.8 66.0 27.1 40.5 56.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 51.2 58.6 63.5 133.8 75.7 65.8 20.7 32.3 46.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 50.8 53.4 59.4 125.0 71.8 62.5 21.1 32.7 46.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 56.5 67.2 68.1 141.1 77.9 67.6 23.8 36.1 51.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 34.3 71.6 61.0 110.1 64.2 57.1 33.5 51.7 74.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 38.2 51.1 62.8 120.2 69.0 58.4 18.0 30.8 47.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 50.1 56.7 62.3 133.2 75.1 64.4 20.8 32.2 46.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 34.1 33.5 42.3 96.3 57.5 51.2 17.8 28.0 40.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 64.7 65.7 68.9 123.6 71.8 63.8 29.3 42.6 58.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 44.0 45.9 43.8 99.4 58.9 53.0 22.9 37.0 54.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 70.5 69.6 77.4 119.7 69.6 61.8 32.6 47.4 64.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 54.0 54.2 56.5 120.3 69.4 60.7 22.8 35.2 50.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 41.8 39.4 42.7 92.1 54.9 49.5 24.1 35.6 49.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 45.8 50.1 47.4 103.9 61.2 55.0 24.9 38.7 55.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 69.4 67.1 60.8 119.3 69.3 60.8 27.9 43.3 62.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 40.1 51.4 58.4 115.3 66.9 59.6 19.6 33.1 50.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 43.8 54.4 57.4 117.2 68.0 58.3 26.3 38.0 52.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 34.5 39.8 52.8 106.5 62.8 56.5 18.0 29.2 43.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 35.8 50.8 63.1 129.7 73.2 61.6 19.7 30.2 43.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 84.8 83.9 70.8 120.1 69.9 62.2 37.5 55.6 77.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 35.8 38.8 44.7 99.9 59.5 53.7 18.9 30.5 45.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------