***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 10.4 10.5 12.6 1.4 72.6 70.5 7.5 8.8 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 10.3 10.4 12.2 1.4 72.9 70.7 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 12.3 12.5 12.6 1.5 74.1 72.1 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 8.0 8.4 10.1 1.6 75.6 73.1 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 9.8 10.2 10.7 1.7 78.5 75.5 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 8.5 8.9 8.3 1.3 74.1 71.2 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 10.1 10.2 12.2 1.3 71.9 70.0 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 5.0 5.5 9.0 1.7 79.6 76.4 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 10.7 11.2 11.2 1.8 80.8 77.9 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 10.2 10.7 9.9 1.8 80.8 77.5 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 9.7 10.2 10.3 1.7 80.0 76.7 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 8.5 9.0 9.6 1.7 79.8 76.6 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 9.0 9.6 9.2 1.5 78.2 74.1 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 10.4 10.7 11.2 1.6 78.5 75.7 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 10.4 10.6 11.6 1.5 74.2 71.9 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 10.6 11.2 9.9 1.7 79.7 76.0 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 10.3 10.5 11.8 1.4 73.6 71.0 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 9.1 9.5 9.2 1.6 78.8 75.7 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 10.2 10.4 12.3 1.5 74.8 72.3 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 5.5 5.9 7.2 1.4 76.5 73.3 2.9 4.0 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 9.9 10.2 12.3 1.6 76.4 74.1 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 9.4 9.5 12.0 1.3 73.2 70.7 7.1 8.1 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 9.9 10.2 12.4 1.6 78.0 75.2 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 9.5 9.8 11.0 1.6 78.4 75.6 7.2 8.2 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 10.6 10.8 11.9 1.5 73.6 71.3 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 9.1 9.5 8.9 1.4 75.0 72.1 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 10.8 11.0 12.0 1.4 72.3 70.1 7.8 9.2 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 8.7 9.0 10.4 1.4 73.6 71.3 6.4 7.5 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 8.6 9.1 8.5 1.6 79.8 76.6 5.9 7.0 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 10.7 10.8 12.5 1.4 72.9 70.8 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------