***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 7.3 6.3 9.3 -0.3 44.9 46.7 5.3 6.7 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.1 8.9 -0.5 43.1 45.1 5.2 6.6 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.6 9.1 -0.3 45.2 46.9 7.7 8.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.6 3.9 6.8 -0.2 46.4 48.2 2.9 4.1 5.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.8 6.8 -0.1 47.9 49.6 4.6 5.9 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.0 5.6 5.6 0.3 55.2 55.9 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.1 8.8 -0.5 42.5 44.7 5.4 6.6 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.0 1.8 5.8 0.3 55.6 56.0 -0.1 1.4 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.8 7.3 -0.1 48.3 49.8 5.7 6.9 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.8 6.2 0.1 52.1 53.0 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.3 6.6 0.1 51.8 52.9 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.6 6.6 0.4 55.8 56.3 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.1 6.2 0.4 56.2 56.7 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.9 7.4 -0.2 47.2 48.2 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.6 7.3 -0.2 46.7 48.3 5.9 6.8 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.3 6.3 0.2 52.6 53.7 6.0 7.1 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.1 8.3 -0.6 41.0 43.3 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.7 5.8 0.1 51.8 52.3 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.3 9.0 -0.4 44.3 46.0 5.4 6.7 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.4 4.4 0.3 54.5 54.9 0.7 2.0 3.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.3 8.5 -0.2 47.1 48.6 5.2 6.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.3 8.4 -0.6 41.3 43.5 4.7 5.9 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.3 8.8 -0.2 46.2 47.6 5.3 6.5 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.1 7.4 -0.1 48.5 49.5 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.5 6.7 7.9 -0.2 47.1 48.5 5.6 7.0 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.4 6.5 0.5 57.7 58.1 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.6 6.4 8.5 -0.3 45.7 47.4 5.1 6.9 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.5 4.9 6.8 -0.2 46.3 48.3 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.1 5.4 0.2 52.6 52.8 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.5 6.4 9.1 -0.4 43.7 45.6 5.5 6.9 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------