***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 6.2 6.4 9.1 0.7 59.3 57.1 4.8 5.9 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 6.2 6.4 8.7 0.5 57.7 56.1 4.6 5.8 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.2 8.4 8.8 0.6 58.7 56.8 6.7 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 3.4 3.7 6.4 0.7 60.1 57.7 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.6 5.9 6.5 0.8 60.9 58.4 4.1 5.2 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 5.7 5.4 5.0 0.9 62.9 60.9 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.2 6.3 8.6 0.5 57.3 55.7 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 1.3 1.8 5.3 1.0 63.3 60.8 -0.3 0.9 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.6 6.9 7.0 0.8 60.5 58.1 5.0 6.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 6.1 6.5 5.8 0.8 61.2 59.0 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.7 6.1 6.2 0.9 62.7 60.0 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.0 5.4 6.1 1.0 63.4 60.8 3.5 4.6 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.9 5.6 0.9 62.3 59.9 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.6 7.0 0.5 57.5 56.3 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.9 6.9 0.6 60.2 57.4 4.5 5.4 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.6 7.0 5.8 0.9 62.3 59.8 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.2 8.3 0.5 56.7 55.1 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 5.0 5.2 5.4 0.7 59.4 57.9 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.2 6.3 8.7 0.5 58.3 56.6 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 2.2 2.5 3.9 0.9 61.5 59.7 0.7 1.8 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 6.1 6.4 8.2 0.7 60.1 57.6 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.6 8.3 0.4 56.4 54.9 4.1 5.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 6.0 6.2 8.4 0.6 58.8 57.1 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 5.7 5.8 7.0 0.6 58.4 57.0 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 6.6 6.9 7.5 0.7 59.8 57.5 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.9 6.1 5.8 0.9 61.9 59.6 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.8 7.1 8.3 0.6 59.1 57.0 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.9 6.4 0.6 59.8 57.4 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 4.2 4.5 4.9 0.7 59.9 58.4 2.6 3.8 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.5 6.6 8.9 0.5 58.0 56.3 4.8 6.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------