***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.9 7.6 0.4 56.1 55.4 2.6 4.3 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.6 7.2 0.4 55.3 54.7 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.2 7.1 7.3 0.4 56.6 55.9 4.9 6.5 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 2.5 2.6 4.9 0.5 58.5 57.2 0.1 1.8 3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 3.9 4.1 5.0 0.6 58.6 57.6 1.9 3.4 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 3.3 3.6 3.5 0.7 60.0 58.3 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.5 7.2 0.3 54.9 54.4 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.2 0.4 3.8 0.7 59.8 58.4 -1.9 -0.4 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 4.9 5.0 5.6 0.6 58.4 57.5 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.8 4.4 0.6 59.0 57.8 2.7 4.1 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.4 4.7 0.6 58.8 58.1 2.3 3.7 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 3.5 3.8 4.5 0.6 58.8 57.8 1.5 3.0 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 3.7 3.9 4.1 0.6 57.8 56.9 1.8 3.2 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.4 5.7 0.5 56.8 55.6 3.4 4.9 6.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.9 5.5 0.5 58.9 57.1 2.8 4.2 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.2 4.3 0.6 58.4 57.7 3.1 4.5 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.6 6.8 0.3 53.9 53.5 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.3 3.4 4.0 0.6 58.3 57.0 1.5 2.8 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.8 7.2 0.4 56.2 55.4 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 0.6 0.7 2.6 0.7 58.9 57.6 -1.3 0.0 1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 4.7 4.7 6.7 0.5 57.5 56.5 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.1 3.9 6.8 0.3 54.3 53.8 1.9 3.5 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.8 7.0 0.5 57.4 56.4 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.5 5.5 0.5 57.4 56.5 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.1 6.1 0.5 57.2 56.1 3.0 4.5 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.1 4.3 4.4 0.7 59.2 57.8 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.2 6.8 0.4 56.4 55.7 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 3.4 3.5 5.0 0.5 58.7 57.3 1.5 2.8 4.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.4 3.5 3.5 0.6 58.0 56.8 1.0 2.7 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.0 7.4 0.4 55.7 55.1 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------