***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.9 9.6 0.5 61.3 60.3 5.7 6.4 7.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.8 9.2 0.4 59.9 59.1 5.6 6.4 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 9.2 9.0 9.4 0.5 61.9 60.8 7.9 8.5 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 4.5 4.4 7.1 0.6 64.9 62.9 3.1 3.8 4.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 6.4 6.3 7.2 0.7 65.8 63.9 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.7 5.6 0.8 68.4 66.3 4.4 5.0 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.7 9.2 0.4 59.0 58.4 5.7 6.3 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 2.2 2.1 6.0 0.9 69.3 67.2 0.7 1.3 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 7.4 7.3 7.8 0.8 66.0 64.1 5.9 6.6 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 7.1 6.9 6.6 0.8 67.6 65.6 5.7 6.3 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 6.7 6.5 7.0 0.8 68.0 65.8 5.2 5.8 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 5.8 5.7 6.7 0.9 69.4 67.1 4.3 5.0 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 6.2 6.1 6.3 0.8 68.1 65.9 4.7 5.4 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 7.5 7.3 7.8 0.6 63.4 61.9 6.2 6.8 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 6.6 6.9 7.8 0.6 64.7 62.3 5.8 6.4 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 7.5 7.4 6.6 0.8 68.2 65.9 6.1 6.7 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.7 8.8 0.4 58.4 57.8 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 5.9 5.8 6.1 0.8 65.8 64.1 4.5 5.2 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 7.1 6.8 9.3 0.5 61.5 60.5 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 2.8 2.7 4.5 0.8 66.5 65.0 1.3 2.0 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 6.9 6.7 8.9 0.7 64.0 62.5 5.5 6.1 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.0 8.9 0.4 58.4 57.8 5.0 5.7 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 6.9 6.7 9.2 0.6 63.9 62.4 5.6 6.2 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 6.6 6.4 7.7 0.7 64.2 62.7 5.3 5.9 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 7.4 7.2 8.4 0.6 63.4 62.0 6.0 6.7 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 6.4 6.4 6.4 0.9 68.5 66.0 5.2 5.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 7.6 7.3 8.9 0.6 61.6 60.6 5.9 6.8 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.1 5.4 7.2 0.6 64.1 62.1 4.3 4.9 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 5.5 5.3 5.6 0.8 66.2 64.5 3.9 4.6 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 7.4 7.1 9.5 0.5 60.4 59.6 6.0 6.6 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------