***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 20.8 21.0 19.9 0.7 58.2 57.7 18.9 20.4 21.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 21.1 21.2 20.0 0.5 56.5 56.3 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 21.2 21.5 20.0 0.7 58.2 57.8 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 14.0 14.2 17.0 0.5 55.3 55.1 11.9 13.7 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 21.1 21.5 18.4 0.7 58.1 57.7 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 20.8 20.5 16.3 0.1 51.0 51.1 18.8 20.4 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 20.7 20.6 19.8 0.3 54.1 54.2 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 11.5 11.8 17.0 0.7 57.9 57.4 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 21.2 21.7 19.4 0.8 59.8 59.3 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 20.9 21.2 17.9 0.7 58.2 57.8 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 21.3 21.6 18.3 0.7 57.6 57.3 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 20.9 21.2 17.7 0.6 57.5 57.1 18.8 20.5 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 21.8 21.7 17.9 0.2 53.0 53.2 19.9 21.4 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 21.6 21.8 19.0 0.6 56.9 56.6 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 20.4 20.5 18.7 0.3 53.7 53.7 18.7 20.2 21.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 22.1 22.3 18.0 0.5 55.3 55.2 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 20.5 20.3 19.3 0.1 51.8 52.3 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 20.2 20.4 17.2 0.6 56.9 56.6 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 20.9 21.3 20.2 0.8 59.0 58.5 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 17.3 17.5 15.4 0.6 57.2 56.8 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 21.1 21.5 19.8 0.8 58.7 58.3 19.3 20.7 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 21.2 21.2 19.5 0.4 55.1 55.0 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 21.3 21.9 20.2 1.0 61.6 60.7 19.4 20.9 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 21.2 21.5 18.9 0.6 57.0 56.8 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 20.5 20.8 18.7 0.7 58.3 57.9 18.9 20.2 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 21.5 21.3 16.9 0.2 51.9 52.1 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 21.0 21.1 19.3 0.6 57.2 56.8 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 20.6 20.7 17.8 0.3 53.7 53.6 18.6 20.3 21.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 16.4 16.5 16.5 0.6 56.7 56.5 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 20.8 21.0 20.2 0.6 57.7 57.3 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------