***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 15.6 16.1 15.6 -1.8 30.3 34.1 16.4 18.1 19.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 15.9 16.5 15.8 -1.7 31.1 34.6 16.7 18.3 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 15.9 16.4 15.6 -1.8 30.2 34.3 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 8.6 8.9 13.2 -2.1 27.0 32.0 9.6 11.2 12.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 16.0 16.3 13.7 -2.0 28.8 33.6 16.7 18.3 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 15.3 15.9 12.8 -1.5 33.8 38.0 15.8 17.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 15.3 16.0 15.7 -1.7 30.5 34.0 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.5 7.3 12.9 -1.5 33.4 38.2 7.2 9.0 10.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 16.0 16.3 14.3 -1.9 29.8 34.6 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 15.7 16.2 13.4 -1.7 31.5 36.4 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 15.9 16.4 13.7 -1.8 30.9 35.8 16.6 18.3 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 15.5 16.1 13.7 -1.5 32.9 37.6 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 16.1 16.7 13.5 -1.6 33.0 37.3 16.7 18.5 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 16.5 17.0 14.4 -1.8 31.1 35.9 17.2 18.9 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 15.3 15.5 13.4 -2.1 26.6 31.7 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 16.5 17.0 13.5 -1.8 31.0 35.6 17.2 18.9 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 15.2 15.7 15.3 -1.9 28.7 32.7 16.1 17.8 19.3 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 15.3 15.9 13.1 -1.6 32.6 37.5 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 15.8 16.4 15.8 -1.7 31.6 35.2 16.6 18.2 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 12.1 13.1 11.6 -1.2 36.2 40.5 12.7 14.6 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 15.9 16.2 14.9 -1.9 29.3 33.9 16.6 18.2 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 15.9 16.4 15.3 -1.8 29.3 33.5 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 16.1 16.7 15.7 -1.6 32.1 35.9 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 16.1 16.6 14.3 -1.8 31.0 35.9 16.8 18.6 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 15.6 15.9 13.9 -1.9 29.3 33.4 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 15.9 16.7 13.7 -1.3 35.4 39.0 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 15.7 16.3 14.9 -1.7 30.6 34.3 16.5 18.2 19.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 15.4 15.7 13.4 -2.2 27.0 32.1 16.3 17.8 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 11.2 12.0 12.5 -1.5 34.2 38.9 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 15.6 16.3 15.8 -1.7 31.3 34.8 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------