***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.2 16.0 0.3 54.2 54.0 14.3 15.8 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.2 16.1 0.4 55.3 55.3 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.8 16.1 0.4 54.8 54.4 14.8 16.4 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.8 13.7 0.2 52.0 51.4 7.9 9.6 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.0 14.3 0.3 53.9 53.0 15.0 16.6 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.9 13.4 0.6 57.2 55.7 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.1 15.9 0.3 54.4 54.8 14.3 15.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.9 13.5 0.6 57.5 55.8 6.8 8.2 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.4 15.0 0.4 55.1 54.0 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.9 14.1 0.5 56.3 55.0 14.7 16.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.3 14.2 0.4 55.4 54.2 15.2 16.8 18.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.2 14.2 0.5 56.5 55.2 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.8 13.9 0.5 55.4 54.6 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.2 15.2 0.6 56.7 55.7 14.9 16.6 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.4 13.7 0.1 51.3 50.5 14.0 15.3 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 18.4 18.2 14.1 0.4 55.0 54.0 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.6 15.6 0.2 52.6 53.5 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.2 13.9 0.6 57.4 55.9 13.9 15.5 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.4 16.3 0.5 56.1 55.6 14.3 15.8 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.3 12.1 0.8 59.0 56.9 11.9 13.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 17.1 16.9 15.5 0.4 54.3 53.6 15.0 16.5 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.2 15.7 0.2 52.9 53.4 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.8 16.3 0.6 57.1 56.0 14.6 16.1 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.4 15.2 0.5 56.4 55.4 15.1 16.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.0 14.3 0.3 53.8 53.1 14.2 15.7 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 17.4 17.5 13.9 0.6 57.3 56.1 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.6 15.2 0.3 54.3 54.0 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.8 13.9 0.2 52.0 51.4 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.3 13.3 0.7 58.3 56.6 10.8 12.5 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.2 16.2 0.4 55.4 55.2 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------