***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.8 14.9 14.0 -0.1 48.9 49.2 13.1 15.0 16.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.8 14.1 0.0 50.5 50.2 13.1 14.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.3 14.1 -0.2 47.9 48.9 13.6 15.5 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.2 8.4 11.6 -0.3 46.0 48.1 6.7 9.0 11.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 13.3 15.2 12.2 -0.2 47.1 48.8 13.6 15.5 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 15.6 14.6 11.4 -0.1 48.8 50.3 12.8 14.8 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.4 14.0 0.0 50.4 50.1 12.7 14.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.5 7.5 11.6 0.1 51.3 52.3 5.7 7.3 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.4 12.9 -0.2 47.8 49.3 13.8 15.6 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.3 12.2 0.0 49.5 50.8 13.5 15.3 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 13.4 15.5 12.2 -0.1 48.4 50.1 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.2 12.3 0.0 50.3 51.6 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.5 12.0 -0.1 49.0 50.7 13.7 15.6 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.7 15.7 13.4 -0.1 49.4 50.8 13.7 15.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 12.2 14.0 11.7 -0.3 45.7 47.9 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.1 12.0 -0.2 48.0 49.8 14.4 16.3 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.6 13.9 13.7 0.0 50.0 49.7 12.3 13.9 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.5 12.1 0.1 50.8 51.8 12.5 14.4 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 12.8 15.0 14.3 0.0 50.3 50.2 13.1 14.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 10.1 12.7 10.4 0.3 53.9 53.8 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.2 13.4 -0.2 47.4 48.7 13.7 15.4 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 12.7 14.8 13.9 0.0 50.3 50.1 13.0 14.8 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 12.9 15.1 14.4 0.0 50.0 50.4 13.3 15.1 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.7 15.7 13.2 -0.1 48.9 50.4 13.8 15.8 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.3 14.4 12.4 -0.1 48.6 49.3 12.9 14.6 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.1 11.9 0.0 49.8 51.1 13.5 15.1 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.1 13.3 0.0 49.8 49.8 13.4 15.2 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 12.2 14.2 11.7 -0.3 45.5 47.8 12.8 14.7 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.6 11.5 0.2 52.3 52.8 9.2 11.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.6 14.2 0.0 50.0 49.9 12.9 14.6 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------