***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.1 16.4 -0.2 46.1 47.7 16.4 17.3 18.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.2 16.5 -0.2 46.8 48.3 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.1 17.6 16.4 -0.2 46.1 47.6 16.8 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.2 10.4 13.8 -0.4 42.2 44.4 9.9 10.9 11.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 18.2 17.5 14.6 -0.3 44.8 46.6 16.9 17.8 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 17.6 17.1 13.5 -0.2 46.3 47.9 16.4 17.3 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 17.4 16.9 16.3 -0.3 45.3 47.2 16.2 17.1 17.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.9 13.8 0.0 49.7 50.4 8.1 8.9 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 18.3 17.7 15.4 -0.2 46.4 47.9 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.4 14.4 -0.1 47.9 49.0 16.6 17.5 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 18.3 17.7 14.6 -0.2 46.7 48.1 16.9 17.9 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 17.9 17.4 14.5 -0.1 48.6 49.6 16.6 17.5 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.0 14.3 -0.2 46.0 47.8 17.3 18.2 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 18.5 18.0 15.5 -0.2 47.1 48.4 17.2 18.1 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.1 16.4 14.4 -0.5 41.0 43.2 16.1 16.8 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 19.1 18.5 14.4 -0.3 45.5 47.2 17.8 18.7 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 17.1 16.5 16.0 -0.4 42.8 45.3 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.2 16.7 14.1 -0.1 48.8 49.7 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.3 16.7 -0.1 48.2 49.3 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.4 12.4 0.1 52.1 52.2 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 18.1 17.5 15.9 -0.3 45.6 47.2 16.8 17.7 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.2 16.1 -0.3 44.5 46.5 16.6 17.5 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 18.0 17.6 16.6 0.0 49.5 50.2 16.8 17.6 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 18.4 17.8 15.4 -0.2 47.0 48.3 17.0 18.0 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.3 16.8 14.8 -0.2 45.6 47.3 16.2 17.1 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 18.1 17.7 14.1 -0.1 47.7 49.0 17.0 17.8 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 17.8 17.4 15.7 -0.2 46.2 47.9 16.7 17.5 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 17.5 16.7 14.2 -0.5 41.3 43.6 16.2 17.1 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.4 13.5 0.0 50.3 50.9 12.4 13.4 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.1 16.6 -0.2 47.2 48.5 16.4 17.2 18.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------