***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.0 11.3 15.3 109.5 68.4 57.6 2.6 5.7 10.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.9 13.8 14.5 114.7 69.3 57.2 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 13.7 12.4 15.6 108.1 67.5 57.8 3.3 6.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.3 15.5 18.7 110.0 67.5 58.3 3.9 8.2 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.3 11.2 18.5 110.8 67.7 58.8 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.5 13.8 18.4 116.6 69.3 61.2 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.8 13.2 14.6 121.4 71.0 58.0 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 18.0 18.4 20.5 120.2 70.1 62.9 6.3 10.8 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 13.5 12.8 17.7 111.2 68.2 59.7 3.8 7.2 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 13.8 13.8 20.6 116.4 69.2 61.5 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 7.6 11.2 17.9 115.5 69.2 60.1 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 13.5 13.0 17.6 117.7 69.6 61.6 2.7 6.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 14.2 13.9 17.8 117.5 69.3 60.9 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.4 19.2 20.7 112.2 68.3 59.9 4.9 10.0 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.6 9.7 17.0 104.4 66.4 56.6 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.1 11.4 17.2 112.6 67.9 58.8 2.5 5.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.7 11.2 14.8 121.4 70.9 58.1 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 11.0 15.3 21.3 109.1 66.7 60.0 4.0 8.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.0 14.3 15.0 112.1 68.7 57.5 3.6 7.4 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 14.0 16.7 22.3 100.9 63.1 57.0 5.8 10.9 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.9 13.1 16.2 108.6 67.8 58.4 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.6 12.8 15.3 116.7 69.8 57.9 2.8 6.1 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.5 12.8 16.1 108.9 67.7 57.5 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.2 15.4 19.1 108.8 67.2 59.4 3.9 8.3 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.0 13.5 17.6 113.0 68.6 59.3 4.7 8.0 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 8.7 12.3 16.7 110.7 67.2 60.3 3.0 6.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.1 11.6 16.6 114.0 69.2 59.0 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.4 8.7 17.9 108.2 67.0 57.4 2.1 4.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 15.9 19.6 21.2 102.4 64.4 58.2 7.2 12.8 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.7 11.8 14.7 113.6 69.0 57.5 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------