***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 8.8 13.7 18.1 188.8 83.7 61.1 2.0 4.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 10.0 12.1 14.7 149.6 77.4 58.6 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 12.2 18.5 18.1 182.4 82.8 62.5 2.1 4.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 17.8 29.2 22.4 197.0 85.1 63.2 3.1 7.2 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 14.4 22.9 20.6 187.9 83.6 63.2 2.9 6.3 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 17.1 24.6 23.0 172.7 81.8 63.7 3.7 7.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 9.1 11.2 14.7 149.4 77.3 58.7 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 20.8 27.7 20.7 163.3 80.0 61.0 5.3 10.4 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 14.0 22.7 20.5 192.2 84.2 62.9 3.1 6.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 17.6 24.7 21.0 174.1 81.6 62.0 4.7 8.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 14.7 21.2 18.7 177.2 82.1 62.1 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 14.4 20.1 18.4 169.7 80.9 62.0 3.1 6.7 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 16.7 22.9 19.9 172.9 81.4 64.3 3.8 7.7 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 20.6 25.1 18.7 152.4 77.9 59.6 4.1 8.9 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 13.9 22.1 25.4 198.7 84.8 64.4 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 13.6 19.7 19.3 177.6 82.2 64.0 3.0 6.2 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.4 9.8 12.7 136.0 74.5 55.3 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 18.3 24.9 22.2 168.0 80.8 62.7 4.7 9.2 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 12.4 15.4 15.0 152.8 77.9 59.0 2.3 5.1 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 17.5 21.4 24.7 152.3 77.9 61.5 4.4 8.5 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 11.9 19.5 19.3 200.5 85.3 62.7 3.1 5.9 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 9.4 10.2 12.7 135.1 74.4 56.9 2.2 4.5 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 13.3 16.9 15.7 156.5 78.7 59.6 2.1 5.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 16.7 23.1 20.2 170.2 81.1 62.2 3.3 7.3 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 12.0 19.7 21.1 193.0 84.6 63.4 2.4 5.5 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 15.5 21.5 20.2 178.1 82.2 65.4 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 10.3 15.4 19.6 181.6 82.9 61.8 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 13.1 19.5 23.0 191.4 84.1 63.1 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 23.5 30.3 22.6 159.3 79.3 61.6 5.9 11.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 10.1 13.3 16.1 161.5 79.5 60.3 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------