***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 12.0 20.9 13.6 138.0 74.9 55.1 3.7 8.2 15.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.0 16.1 14.7 128.6 72.4 51.9 3.1 6.9 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.0 18.6 13.2 125.5 71.6 54.2 3.9 8.4 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.2 19.5 15.9 135.2 74.3 56.5 3.7 8.1 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.4 16.7 14.8 132.5 73.5 56.2 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.9 10.6 15.1 109.8 67.5 53.5 2.8 5.7 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.6 13.0 15.1 127.7 72.1 51.9 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.7 16.9 14.2 109.9 66.9 51.8 5.0 9.8 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.5 15.0 13.9 125.5 71.5 54.9 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.5 16.1 13.9 114.2 68.0 53.2 5.0 9.3 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.1 15.1 13.2 130.8 73.1 55.5 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.8 11.6 12.8 115.4 69.1 52.3 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.6 12.7 14.2 114.3 69.0 54.0 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.0 25.1 15.8 121.2 70.3 53.1 6.2 12.3 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.2 14.9 15.6 125.6 71.9 54.7 2.5 6.1 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.6 13.2 13.4 123.3 71.3 55.3 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.1 13.3 15.4 131.8 73.3 51.7 2.6 5.5 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.3 12.1 14.5 103.4 64.1 51.8 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.3 21.9 14.3 129.8 72.8 52.3 4.1 9.1 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.8 15.0 19.1 103.3 64.0 51.7 4.7 9.4 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.6 19.7 13.0 132.1 73.3 54.7 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.9 18.9 15.2 134.5 74.0 51.7 3.1 7.3 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.4 21.9 14.1 129.7 72.7 52.8 4.1 9.1 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.1 19.2 14.0 113.6 67.9 53.3 4.2 9.7 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.1 20.0 15.7 134.4 73.9 54.8 3.2 7.7 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.8 13.5 14.1 112.3 68.2 51.6 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.3 18.0 15.3 135.0 74.1 54.4 3.7 7.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.0 13.5 15.0 125.8 71.8 54.6 2.7 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.9 16.3 15.7 101.5 63.4 51.2 5.3 10.5 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.1 18.0 14.3 128.7 72.5 52.8 3.5 7.6 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------