***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.2 7.3 10.2 97.1 63.5 46.6 2.2 4.5 7.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.1 6.9 10.5 98.1 64.0 48.3 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.6 8.2 10.8 101.6 64.9 47.2 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.2 8.8 13.2 97.5 65.3 49.2 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.8 7.7 12.2 94.6 63.8 46.7 2.7 5.1 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.2 6.2 12.5 98.5 65.6 50.9 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.7 7.1 10.1 94.8 63.2 47.8 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.0 8.9 12.2 93.7 63.8 47.8 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.8 7.5 12.1 94.0 63.5 45.8 2.9 5.1 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.6 9.7 12.8 95.4 64.1 47.3 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.0 7.5 10.9 95.1 64.4 47.2 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.7 7.2 10.3 92.9 63.9 47.2 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.1 6.9 10.9 90.7 63.1 48.4 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.5 12.3 14.2 107.5 67.1 50.5 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.0 6.5 14.3 102.2 66.6 50.5 1.5 3.5 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.4 6.4 10.9 94.4 64.3 48.3 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.2 8.2 9.8 90.6 61.4 46.4 2.8 5.6 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.2 9.2 14.3 96.4 63.8 47.3 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.8 9.0 10.8 102.5 65.3 48.8 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.3 16.9 90.6 62.2 48.2 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 2.0 7.0 11.1 94.2 63.0 45.4 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.3 8.4 10.2 91.0 61.7 46.9 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.8 9.1 11.5 108.1 66.9 49.5 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.4 10.6 13.0 101.2 65.1 47.8 3.1 6.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.3 6.4 11.9 94.1 62.8 47.5 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.7 10.0 88.2 62.5 49.1 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.0 5.8 11.0 94.7 62.7 47.4 1.9 3.9 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.9 7.3 13.4 100.4 66.3 49.9 2.4 4.5 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.7 13.9 15.8 96.9 63.8 47.8 5.4 9.4 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.9 6.8 10.6 101.1 65.0 48.8 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------