***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 48.6 54.4 57.3 130.2 73.3 63.1 17.8 29.5 44.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 36.3 49.2 54.4 122.0 70.0 59.9 18.5 30.0 44.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 53.9 57.8 57.6 126.8 72.0 62.6 20.6 33.4 49.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 64.9 69.2 70.2 130.9 73.3 64.1 24.3 39.3 57.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 52.0 54.8 66.0 127.8 72.2 63.3 20.2 32.1 47.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 51.1 52.3 69.0 124.2 71.1 63.1 18.8 30.7 46.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 32.5 44.2 54.5 122.9 70.4 60.7 17.6 27.7 40.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 68.6 70.0 67.6 121.5 69.7 62.4 28.9 44.6 64.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 51.8 54.6 64.2 127.1 71.9 62.9 21.1 33.0 47.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 59.9 61.9 68.2 123.4 70.6 62.5 29.0 41.6 56.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 48.6 52.5 60.7 127.5 72.1 64.2 19.5 30.9 45.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 48.9 50.2 59.1 123.0 70.4 62.7 17.9 29.9 44.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 53.8 54.4 62.7 122.9 70.5 62.7 19.7 32.2 48.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 81.8 82.5 69.4 121.9 70.2 61.2 34.2 52.7 75.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 48.4 51.9 72.3 130.3 73.0 64.0 15.0 26.9 42.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 46.7 49.6 60.8 125.1 71.3 63.4 16.9 28.3 43.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 33.4 43.2 52.6 119.7 69.1 58.4 17.2 27.2 40.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 48.8 61.0 72.4 117.4 68.0 60.0 27.8 41.9 58.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 59.7 61.1 55.0 123.1 70.5 60.4 23.7 37.6 54.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 53.1 61.8 83.0 110.1 64.2 58.0 33.2 47.4 63.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 53.7 57.9 59.6 129.1 72.6 63.4 21.6 34.0 49.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 41.1 51.2 53.4 118.7 68.6 58.3 22.8 34.5 48.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 58.8 60.8 57.4 123.9 70.9 61.0 22.2 36.2 53.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 51.7 69.6 66.4 121.5 69.8 61.2 26.3 42.7 63.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 53.5 57.7 66.3 130.4 73.3 63.6 18.0 31.0 47.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 52.4 53.1 61.1 121.2 69.7 62.3 20.8 33.0 48.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 46.1 50.7 62.5 129.3 73.0 63.3 17.3 28.4 42.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 44.6 47.7 69.3 128.8 72.6 63.8 17.5 27.8 40.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 66.4 78.1 75.2 113.1 65.8 58.4 42.2 58.9 78.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 47.2 50.4 55.7 125.2 71.3 61.7 17.8 29.2 44.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------