***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 10.9 12.7 13.8 3.5 91.7 89.4 7.5 8.8 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 10.8 11.8 12.6 2.8 87.5 85.1 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 12.7 14.1 13.5 3.1 90.4 88.1 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 8.6 10.5 11.3 3.7 92.9 91.1 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 10.2 12.4 12.5 3.8 94.2 92.1 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 9.2 11.1 10.0 3.8 94.4 92.5 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 10.6 11.7 12.8 3.1 88.8 86.7 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 5.3 6.7 9.4 3.0 90.6 87.9 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 11.0 12.4 11.9 3.2 91.1 88.5 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 10.4 11.8 10.1 3.0 90.4 87.5 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 10.0 11.8 11.7 3.5 93.4 91.1 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 8.8 10.5 10.8 3.5 93.4 91.0 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 9.5 11.5 10.9 3.6 93.9 91.8 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 10.6 11.4 10.8 2.4 86.4 83.4 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 10.8 12.2 13.0 3.5 92.2 90.6 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 11.1 13.1 11.4 3.8 94.1 92.1 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 10.7 11.5 12.0 2.6 86.3 84.2 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 9.4 10.7 9.5 2.9 90.2 87.4 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 10.5 11.4 12.6 2.6 86.8 84.4 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 5.9 7.2 8.2 2.8 88.9 86.2 2.9 4.0 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 10.3 12.1 13.2 3.5 92.7 90.6 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 9.7 10.5 12.1 2.4 85.0 82.8 7.1 8.1 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 10.0 10.9 12.4 2.5 86.0 83.4 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 9.7 10.7 11.2 2.7 88.6 85.9 7.2 8.2 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 11.2 13.1 13.5 3.7 93.0 90.9 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 9.7 11.7 10.6 3.7 94.8 92.8 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 11.5 13.7 13.7 3.8 92.8 90.7 7.8 9.2 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 9.3 10.8 11.7 3.6 92.3 90.7 6.4 7.5 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 8.8 9.8 8.6 2.5 86.8 83.7 5.9 7.0 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 11.2 12.4 13.1 2.9 88.6 86.1 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------