***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.2 5.1 7.8 0.6 57.8 54.9 2.6 4.3 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 4.9 5.0 7.4 0.7 59.2 56.3 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.2 7.2 7.7 0.6 57.5 55.3 4.9 6.5 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -0.2 2.4 5.1 0.5 56.4 54.9 0.1 1.8 3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 4.0 3.8 5.5 0.5 55.8 54.7 1.9 3.4 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 3.4 3.3 3.7 0.5 56.5 55.6 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.2 4.9 7.5 0.7 59.2 56.3 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.2 0.1 3.9 0.4 55.9 55.3 -1.9 -0.4 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.8 5.8 0.5 56.1 55.0 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.5 4.5 0.4 55.7 55.1 2.7 4.1 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.1 4.9 0.4 55.1 54.4 2.3 3.7 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.5 4.4 0.5 56.2 55.4 1.5 3.0 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 3.8 3.7 4.1 0.5 56.3 55.4 1.8 3.2 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.2 5.5 5.8 0.6 57.3 55.8 3.4 4.9 6.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.6 4.7 6.0 0.5 57.0 55.0 2.8 4.2 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.9 4.4 0.4 55.3 54.6 3.1 4.5 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.4 5.1 7.3 0.8 59.9 57.0 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.3 3.2 3.9 0.4 55.2 54.8 1.5 2.8 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 4.9 5.0 7.4 0.7 58.7 56.1 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 0.6 0.4 2.7 0.4 55.3 55.0 -1.3 0.0 1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.7 7.0 0.6 57.1 55.3 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 1.7 4.4 7.1 0.8 59.7 57.0 1.9 3.5 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.9 4.9 7.3 0.6 57.9 55.7 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 2.3 4.4 5.4 0.5 56.2 55.3 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.2 6.7 0.7 58.3 55.5 3.0 4.5 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.2 3.9 0.5 57.3 56.1 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.2 5.4 7.4 0.7 58.3 55.3 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 3.4 3.3 5.1 0.4 56.0 54.7 1.5 2.8 4.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.4 3.2 3.6 0.4 54.9 54.7 1.0 2.7 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.2 5.3 7.6 0.7 58.6 55.8 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------